NBA Power Rankings: Should You Bet on the Warriors to Make the Playoffs?
With more than a month of the 2020-21 NBA regular season in the books, it's time to take a look at numberFire's power rankings and see which teams saw the most movement since last week.
Teams will be ranked in terms of nERD, which is our efficiency metric based on in-game data. These ratings allow us to understand which teams and players are performing best. nERD is indicative of a team's expected winning percentage, so an average team will have a nERD score of 50.0.
Here's a look at how each team stacks up.
The Bottom 10
| Ranking | Team | Record | nERD | Last Ranking | Plus/Minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Detroit Pistons | 5-18 | 28.9 | 29 | -1 |
| 29 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 6-18 | 29.2 | 30 | +1 |
| 28 | Orlando Magic | 9-15 | 29.8 | 27 | -1 |
| 27 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 10-13 | 32.8 | 28 | +1 |
| 26 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 10-15 | 32.9 | T22 | -4 |
| 25 | Washington Wizards | 6-15 | 35.1 | T22 | -3 |
| 24 | Miami Heat | 9-14 | 36.7 | 26 | +2 |
| 23 | Chicago Bulls | 9-14 | 40.5 | 25 | +2 |
| 22 | Sacramento Kings | 12-11 | 41.0 | 24 | +2 |
| 21 | New York Knicks | 11-14 | 43.2 | 21 | 0 |
- The Cleveland Cavaliers lost four in a row this week, and now our model gives them just a 3.5% likelihood of making the playoffs, which is second-lowest in the league.
- With a record of 6-15, the Washington Wizards drop three spots in our rankings. Our models give the Wizards 91.9% odds of missing the playoffs, but their -850 line to miss the playoffs on NBA Finals odds implies 89.5% odds -- so there's some potential value to be had there.
- Things are finally looking up for the reigning Eastern Conference Champions, as the Miami Heat have won three in a row to improve their record to 9-14.
The Middle of the Pack
| Ranking | Team | Record | nERD | Last Ranking | Plus/Minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Dallas Mavericks | 11-14 | 44.7 | 16 | -4 |
| 19 | Charlotte Hornets | 12-13 | 44.9 | T18 | -1 |
| 18 | Portland Trail Blazers | 12-10 | 45.3 | T18 | 0 |
| 17 | San Antonio Spurs | 14-10 | 47.5 | 15 | -2 |
| 16 | New Orleans Pelicans | 10-12 | 48.5 | 20 | +4 |
| 15 | Memphis Grizzlies | 9-10 | 48.7 | 13 | -2 |
| 14 | Golden State Warriors | 12-12 | 49.7 | 17 | +3 |
| 13 | Houston Rockets | 11-12 | 52.3 | 12 | -1 |
| 12 | Phoenix Suns | 14-9 | 52.4 | 10 | -2 |
| 11 | Toronto Raptors | 11-13 | 52.6 | 14 | +3 |
- The Dallas Mavericks had three wins this week, though they were sandwiched by a 31-point loss to the Golden State Warriors. numberFire's algorithm deems it 51.9% likely that the Mavs will miss the postseason, yet they are +184 to do so on FanDuel Sportsbook (35.2% implied odds).
- The New Orleans Pelicans won four in a row this week, and each of those contests were against teams in either the middle- or upper-tier of our rankings -- that earned them a four-spot bump.
- With just one loss by more than 10 points since New Year's Eve, the Golden State Warriors are once again riding the train up our power rankings. Our model sees some value in betting on Stephen Curry and company to make it to the playoffs, as we give them a 58.6% chance of doing so. The Sportsbook's -104 line on that wager implies just 51% likelihood.
The Best of the Best
| Ranking | Team | Record | nERD | Last Ranking | Plus/Minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Indiana Pacers | 12-12 | 52.7 | 9 | -1 |
| 9 | Boston Celtics | 12-10 | 52.9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Atlanta Hawks | 11-12 | 53.6 | 8 | 0 |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 12-11 | 55.4 | 7 | 0 |
| 6 | Brooklyn Nets | 14-11 | 60.7 | 5 | -1 |
| 5 | Philadelphia 76ers | 18-7 | 61.5 | 6 | +1 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Clippers | 17-8 | 70.2 | 3 | -1 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Lakers | 19-6 | 73.1 | 1 | -2 |
| 2 | Utah Jazz | 19-5 | 73.5 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | Milwaukee Bucks | 16-8 | 74.7 | 4 | +3 |
- The Indiana Pacers went on a bit of a skid this week, losing three straight. The Pacers have now dropped six of their last eight contests.
- Winners of 9 of their last 11 outings, the Philadelphia 76ers find themselves inside the top-five of our rankings.
- With the league's best record, the Utah Jazz have entered the top-two of our rankings for the first time this season. Over at oddsFire, we see that you can make a championship bet on the Jazz for as low as 33/1, which carries just 2.9% implied odds -- our model gives Utah a 9.2% chance of winning a title.
