FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Thursday 2/11/21

The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's five-game slate, which locks at 7:30 PM Eastern.

Slate Overview

Via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet, this table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Point Guard

Studs to Consider: Tonight's slate isn't exactly loaded with studs, which means you'll likely need to roster at least one at point guard -- and there are a number of options to consider. Damian Lillard ($10,000) is our model's top-projected scorer at the position, and he's also the fifth-best projected value. Dame has racked up at least 44.3 FanDuel points in 9 of his last 10 games, including four outings with 54.9-plus during that stretch. The matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers isn't brutal -- over their last 15 contests, the Sixers have surrendered the second-most real-life points to opposing point guards, according to FantasyPros.

Though he'll cost you $500 more, Stephen Curry ($10,500) is projected to score fewer fantasy points than Lillard. That said, Curry does have a few things going for him. First, the Golden State Warriors have an implied total of 115.8, which is good for the second-highest on the slate. Second, the former MVP will face an Orlando Magic defense that ranks 25th against the position, according to numberFire's DvP tool. The issue at hand is that Curry would need 52.5 FanDuel points just to reach our baseline value figure, and he's only done that in twice in his last 13 outings (both have come in his last five games).

Ben Simmons ($8,800) has a significantly lower floor -- the same can be said for his ceiling -- than the aforementioned stars, but he has an equal (if not better) chance of returning our desired value. Simmons has topped 45 fantasy points four times in his last eight games, including three efforts of more than 50. On the season, the Portland Trail Blazers are ceding the eighth-most fantasy points to point guards.

Honorable Mentions: Kyle Lowry ($7,300) and Malcolm Brogdon ($7,200) are two of just four point guards projected to return a value figure of 5.0 or better by our algorithm tonight. Lowry gets a tough draw in a Boston Celtics team that's allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to point guards. However, in 12 games against Boston over the last two seasons (including the playoffs), the 34-year-old is averaging 40.2 FanDuel points per game. Meanwhile, Brogdon disappointed as the highest-rostered player on FanDuel last night, which could work to the advantage of those that roster him tonight.

Value Options: numberFire's top-projected value on this entire slate is Kendrick Nunn ($5,000). Given that both Goran Dragic and Avery Bradley are out for the Miami Heat, this projection does make sense. In the 11 games that Nunn has seen more than 27.2 this season, he has garnered at least 27.9 fantasy points 7 times, and that includes 4 outings with more than 35. On the season, the Houston Rockets are allowing the second-most rebounds and the most steals to point guards, which should be enough to help Nunn stay afloat, at the very least.

Our model's second-best projected value is Kemba Walker ($5,500). Walker's had a number of explosive performances -- 34.9-plus in 4 out of his 10 games -- and he'll be squaring off against a Toronto Raptors team that's on the back-end of a back-to-back. Nevertheless, he has dudded in each of his last two games and he's likely to be one of the highest-rostered players on the slate. Fading him might not be the worst idea.

There are a couple of plays I want to touch on before wrapping up the position -- Delon Wright ($6,700) and Frank Mason ($4,200). In nine games without Derrick Rose in the lineup this season, Wright has averaged 35.5 FanDuel points per game, including outings of 35.6, 39.4, 44.3, and 55.9 in four of his last five. Over their last seven games, the Indiana Pacers are allowing the third-most fantasy points to point guards. Meanwhile, Mason is a viable salary-saving option, especially if Cole Anthony and Evan Fournier can't go. Mason has put up 20.8 and 22.4 fantasy points in his last two.

Shooting Guard

Core Play: Shake Milton is doubtful for tonight's contest, which only boosts the already rosy outlook for Seth Curry ($4,100). Curry has accrued 25.4 and 27.1 fantasy points in his last two outings, and he would only need 20.5 tonight for 5X value. With the Sixers having the highest implied total on the slate, Curry is a great way to get exposure to that while saving salary for other spots in your lineup.

Value Options: In his last five games, Josh Jackson ($5,500) is averaging 31.9 fantasy points per game. The Pacers are ceding the 10th-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season, so the matchup isn't too tough for Jackson. We can also look to Tyler Herro ($5,800) in that range. Herro draws a Houston team that's allowing the third-most FanDuel points to the position. A word of caution though -- Herro is averaging 27.3 fantasy points in his last six games with Jimmy Butler in the lineup, and his ceiling might be capped.

Along with Jackson and Curry, the only other shooting guard projected for a value figure better than 5.0 by our model is Terrence Ross ($5,200). Ross should see a bump in volume if Anthony and Fournier can't suit up.

Stud to Consider: Our algorithm only has one shooting guard projected for 35 or more FanDuel points, and that's Fred VanVleet ($9,300). FVV crapping the bed last night, coupled with a matchup against a Boston team that's fifth-stingiest against the position should keep the masses off him. That said, the 26-year-old did manage 53.1 FanDuel points against Boston in January in a game that Marcus Smart did not play. Additionally, in his eight games following a sub-35-fantasy-point performance, VanVleet has bounced back to the tune of a 46.8 fantasy-point average. He could be an excellent differentiator in tournaments tonight.

Small Forward

Key Stud: Embrace the chalk that is Jimmy Butler ($8,700) tonight. In his last eight outings, Jimmy Buckets is averaging 50 fantasy points per game with a low of 41.5 during that stretch. Given the tight spread and the fact that Dragic likely won't play tonight, Butler should be one of the safest studs on the slate.

Honorable Mention: Jerami Grant ($8,200) has garnered 45.0, 45.8, and 53.8 FanDuel points in three of his last four games. Indiana is just average against small forwards.

Value Options: Our model's top-projected value is Danny Green ($3,700). Each of Green's six highest-scoring fantasy games this season have come in contests that Shake Milton has either missed or played fewer than 23 minutes. Given that Green leads the Sixers in minutes without Milton on the court this season (per RotoGrinders), he should see a solid load tonight. Green and teammate Matisse Thybulle ($3,700) are the only small forwards projected to post a value figure better than 5.0 tonight.

The Magic ranked 23rd against small forwards, which brings Kelly Oubre ($6,500) and Juan Toscano-Anderson ($5,200) into play. Oubre has eclipsed 34 FanDuel points in four of his last nine games, but he has also had 20.5 or fewer three times during that stretch. Meanwhile, JTA has managed at least 22 fantasy points in five straight, including outings of 25.9, 30.1, and 35.1. I'd rather save the chunk of cash and roll with Toscano-Anderson.

Finally, an under-the-radar play worth considering is James Ennis ($4,200). With Fournier out and Anthony exiting early on Tuesday, Ennis posted season-highs in both minutes (34.9) and fantasy points (31.2). Both players are questionable tonight.

Power Forward

Studs to Consider: As is the case at point guard, power forward is a position where you can in a number of different directions, especially with regard to studs. At the top, we have Jayson Tatum ($9,500). Tatum managed just 33.8 fantasy points on Tuesday, which could depress his roster percentage a bit on tonight's slate. In his lone matchup with the Raptors this campaign, Tatum dropped 40 real-life and 55.2 FanDuel points. My expectations for Tatum are a tad loftier than our model's 42.9-FanDuel-point projection.

Another route we can pivot to is Domantas Sabonis ($9,300). Sabonis will square off against a Pistons interior that ranks dead last against power forwards in 2020-21.

Core Play: We talked about the streakiness of Chris Boucher ($6,400) in last night's helper, and it is certainly worth revisiting tonight. In his last 18 contests, Boucher has had a six-game stretch where he never produced fewer than 38.3 fantasy points, an eight-game streak with fewer than 30, and, most recently, four straight outputs of at least 32 -- that includes 42.7 and 47.5 in two of his last three. Tonight, Boucher will face a Boston team that ranks 19th versus centers this season -- not exactly intimidating.

Value Options: Our model's top-projected value is Daniel Theis ($4,900). Theis needs 24.5 for a 5.0 value figure tonight, and he has posted between 24.8 and 27.9 in four of his last six games.

After Theis, numberFire's next-best projected value is Blake Griffin ($5,100). Griffin is going up against an Indiana frontcourt that's allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to power forwards this season. We can also consider Carmelo Anthony ($5,300) against a Philly squad that's struggled to defend small forwards. Melo has put up 29.3, 34.6, and 42.3 fantasy points in three of his last four games.

Center

Studs to Consider: Our model's top-projected scorer on the entire slate is Joel Embiid ($10,800), who is averaging 51 FanDuel points per game this season. Embiid has amassed at least 52.3 fantasy points in 8 of his last 11 matches, and that includes six outings with more than 57. Tonight, Embiid will face a Blazers team that's surrendering the third-most real-life points to opposing centers this season.

Golden State ranks 21st against centers this season, and they currently don't have a true five on their roster, which means that Nikola Vucevic ($9,800) is as much in play as Embiid. In his last three games, Vuce has had outputs of 62.0 and 73.8 FanDuel points. The 30-year-old is our model's third-best projected value at the position.

"Value" Options: DeMarcus Cousins ($6,000) is numberFire's top-projected value at center. Cousins has had some success with Christian Wood out of the lineup this season, but he has only recorded 29.3 and 20.4 fantasy points in his last two games -- and that was despite soaring projections. It's also worth noting that Miami is the stingiest team against the opposition's centers this season.

Mason Plumlee ($7,000) has topped 39 fantasy points in three of his last four games and he is rarely a popular play. Plumlee does have a lineup-crippling floor, but he can be a differentiator in tournaments if he erupts as he did on Tuesday against the Brooklyn Nets (51.9 FanDuel points). Myles Turner ($6,800) is in the exact same boat as Plumlee -- lineup-crippling floor and likely low rostership, which can make him a differentiator if he explodes.