3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 2/17/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at Online Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Julius Randle Under 23.5 Points (-120)
Julius Randle has been on quite a tear of late and has posted 26, 12, 24, 22, and 44 points in his past five games. He faced the Miami Heat, Washington Wizards, Houston Rockets, and Atlanta Hawks in those games. Those teams rank 5th, 27th, 6th, and 15th, respectively, in adjusted defensive rating, based on my data.
Our algorithm is projecting Randle for just 21.2 points over 34.6 minutes. The Orlando Magic aren't a great defense -- they are rating out 25th in adjusted defensive rating -- but they're also just 20th in adjusted pace, and the New York Knicks are dead last. Possessions could be scarce in this game.
Randle has averaged 0.67 points per minute in his games against bottom-10 adjusted defenses, which would total 23.2 at his projected minutes load. The 47.6% shooter from the field has hit 55.8% of his buckets in the past three games. He should cool off eventually, and the possession volume won't help either.
Lonzo Ball Over 12.5 Points (-122)
Lonzo Ball is projected for 13.4 points in this game based on numberFire's model. His matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers offers a lot to like.
Portland allows 28.8 points per game to opposing point guards, the 2nd-highest number in the NBA. It's not really a surprise that Damian Lillard ranks as a poor defender and is actually last in D-LEBRON, via BBall-Index. Further, the Blazers rank 29th in adjusted defensive rating and 8th in three-point attempt rate allowed.
Ball is up to a career-high 62.2% three-point attempt rate himself, which ranks him fourth among players with at least 10.0 field goal attempts per game. That's a great sign for some added three-point attempts
Gary Trent Jr. Over 3.5 Three-Pointers (-120)
On the other side of that game, the trends point to Gary Trent Jr. also having a good night from behind the arc. numberFire projects Trent Jr. for 3.8 made threes on 8.6 attempts tonight against the New Orleans Pelicans.
New Orleans allows an astounding 46.9% of opponent field goal attempts to come from beyond the arc, a league-high rate and 8.4 points higher than the league's median number of 38.5%. Trent puts up 57.2% of his shot attempts from deep, which ranks him ninth among players with at least 10.0 field goal attempts per game.
Trent, a 44.4% three-point shooter, should have minimal resistance in getting up his shots against New Orleans tonight.
