NBA Odds Update: Bet on the Jazz to Win It All
In this edition of the 2020-21 NBA Championship Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their numberFire title odds move the most since our last update.
Teams that had strong starts and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those that had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
If you want to see numberFire's odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings. FanDuel Sportsbook's most up-to-date championship odds can be found here. Now, here's a look at the three teams who had the most movement in title odds over the last week.
Utah Jazz
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 16.7%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 8.8%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +900
This isn't the first time the Utah Jazz have been featured in this article, and as long as their betting odds remain this enticing, we'll continue to try and hammer home this point -- they are a great bet to win the NBA title this year.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, Utah is currently listed at 9/1 -- that carries implied odds of 10%. numberFire's algorithm has the probability that Utah finishes as the champs at 16.7%. At the moment, you might be able to get the Jazz at an even lower price than +900, but the longer you wait, the more their odds will shrink.
The Jazz are currently first in our model's power rankings, and it's not particularly close. On the season, Utah ranks first in win percentage and net rating, are second in defensive efficiency, and fourth in offensive efficiency. That's about as complete as a team can get.
Toronto Raptors
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 4.0%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 1.5%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +5500
Over their 12 games, the Toronto Raptors are 9-3 with a net rating of 6.6 -- that's good for fifth in the league. During that stretch, the Raptors rank inside the top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which means that head coach Nick Nurse has them back to playing elite-level basketball.
Toronto hasn't beaten just anyone -- during the month of February, they have victories over the Brooklyn Nets, Milwaukee Bucks, and Philadelphia 76ers. Each of those three squads are inside the top-six in our power rankings.
FanDuel's 55/1 odds for the Raptors to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy this year implies a 1.8% chance of it occurring. Given our model's 4.0% probability, there is, potentially, some value to be had here.
Boston Celtics
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 1.2%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 1.8%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +2500
The Boston Celtics have played and looked like a .500 team for much of the season, and yet that's not reflected in their betting odds.
Boston's 25/1 odds imply that they have a 3.9% chance of winning the NBA Championship this season, which is far higher than our algorithm's 1.2% probability.
So far in 2020-21, Boston ranks 12th in the league in net rating, and they are outside the top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. In other words, they're not playing championship-caliber basketball on either side of the court.
The Celtics are one of the biggest droppers in our model's odds over the last couple of weeks, and there's just no reason to bet them at the current price.
