NBA Betting Guide for 2/23/21: An Over, an Under, and an Underdog to Bet Tonight
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks
We're seeing heavy action on the under (224.0) in this game in terms of the discrepancy between bets (20%) and money (39%) at FanDuel Sportsbook. That's the biggest gap between tickets and money percentage across all games and all bet types.
Although that still leaves the majority of money on the over, numberFire's algorithm does see slight value on the under, as well. Our median projected total is 221.0 points, leaving the under as 55.6% likely to occur. Further, the 8 most comparable games to this one historically hit the under, and 20 of the 25 most comparable games hit the under.
With Kristaps Porzingis questionable, that's relevant. The Dallas Mavericks' offensive rating falls from 114.8 to 109.9 without Porzingis, a 4.9-point drop off. Using the Mavs' data without Porzingis, the expected total in my model drops from 226.1 to 219.9. With Dallas on the second night of a back-to-back, there are reasons to like the under and to follow the smart money gap.
Sacramento Kings at Brooklyn Nets
The Brooklyn Nets are without Kevin Durant, but their numbers aren't completely terrible sans Durant and with Kyrie Irving and James Harden by any means -- their offensive rating falls from 122.4 to 121.1 and their defensive rating climbs from 114.0 to 116.2 for a net rating shift from 8.4 to 4.8 -- but that's good news for the over here.
The total is 242.5, which is wild, but we're seeing another discrepancy in the betting trends with 43% of the tickets but 55% of the money on the over.
My model, using full-season adjusted offensive and defensive ratings and adjusted pace, predicted a 244.1-point total in this game, and it does fall just shy of that using the Nets' splits without Durant, but 68.8% of Nets games and 63.3% of the Sacramento Kings' games have hit the over.
Golden State Warriors at New York Knicks
The Golden State Warriors may or may not have Stephen Curry, so we need to keep an eye on his status.
The Warriors without Curry see their offensive rating drop from 113.0 to 100.8, though their defensive rating improves from 111.2 to 102.0. That's a shift in net rating from 1.9 to -1.2. Either way, it's not as drastic as you might have thought.
That's enough, though, to back the New York Knicks, which is what our algorithm is doing. It rates the Knicks +3.5 as a four-star wager out of five and the Knicks' moneyline (+130) as a four-star recommendation, as well. We're projecting the Knicks to win 62.0% of the time, which implies a 42.6% expected return. Similarly, our algo thinks the Knicks +3.5 is 69.9% likely, which is good for a 33.5% expected return.
A lot hinges on Curry's health, but even with him, we're probably looking at a higher score but just a close game either way based on overall team net ratings. This is one of our algorithm's favorite angles of the night.
