NBA

Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for 2/24/21

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Feb 24th, 2021

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values initially included last season's data but now show only stats from the 2020-21 season.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under 		Spread Implied
Total 		Adj.
Offensive
Rating 		Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating 		Rank
PHX CHA 226.0 -10.5 118.25 119.8 7 114.0 21
CHI MIN 229.0 -3.5 116.25 113.7 13 115.4 24
NO DET 222.5 -9.5 116.0 120.7 6 113.1 18
IND GS 230.0 -2.0 116.0 113.0 14 105.8 4
BOS ATL 226.5 -3.5 115.0 110.6 17 114.1 22
GS IND 230.0 2.0 114.0 110.3 18 109.1 9
UTAH LAL 218.0 -8.0 113.0 123.0 4 102.3 2
MIN CHI 229.0 3.5 112.75 98.7 29 113.7 20
ATL BOS 226.5 3.5 111.50 114.2 11 111.0 14
HOU CLE 217.5 -3.5 110.50 98.5 30 115.5 25
OKC SA 218.5 -2.5 110.50 101.3 26 111.9 15
MIA TOR 214.0 -2.5 108.25 102.2 24 109.5 11
SA OKC 218.5 2.5 108.0 109.4 20 110.1 12
CHA PHX 226.0 10.5 107.75 109.6 19 107.1 6
CLE HOU 217.5 3.5 107.0 99.2 28 108.9 8
DET NO 222.5 9.5 106.50 104.6 23 120.9 28
TOR MIA 214.0 2.5 105.75 114.2 10 106.9 5
LAL UTAH 218.0 8.0 105.0 110.6 16 99.8 1

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace. Remember, these are now showing just 2020-21 stats, so things get a little out of whack because of a smaller sample.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace 		Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace 		Rank Expected
Pace 		Expected
Offensive
Rating 		Expected
Points
IND GS 101.0 13 104.8 2 102.9 109.4 112.6
GS IND 104.8 2 101.0 13 102.9 109.7 112.9
CHI MIN 102.4 6 102.0 7 102.2 114.5 117.1
MIN CHI 102.0 7 102.4 6 102.2 106.2 108.6
OKC SA 101.8 9 101.1 12 101.4 106.6 108.1
SA OKC 101.1 12 101.8 9 101.4 109.7 111.3
HOU CLE 103.0 4 99.0 26 101.0 107.0 108.1
CLE HOU 99.0 26 103.0 4 101.0 104.1 105.1
UTAH LAL 100.7 15 99.8 21 100.3 112.6 112.9
LAL UTAH 99.8 21 100.7 15 100.3 105.2 105.5
BOS ATL 99.7 22 100.7 16 100.2 112.3 112.6
ATL BOS 100.7 16 99.7 22 100.2 112.6 112.8
MIA TOR 99.2 24 100.8 14 100.0 105.8 105.8
TOR MIA 100.8 14 99.2 24 100.0 110.6 110.6
NO DET 99.5 23 99.1 25 99.3 116.9 116.0
DET NO 99.1 25 99.5 23 99.3 112.7 111.9
PHX CHA 97.9 29 100.5 17 99.2 116.9 116.0
CHA PHX 100.5 17 97.9 29 99.2 108.4 107.5

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
ATL BOS 0.93 (5) 0.84 (6) 0.87 (10) 0.90 (7) 1.14 (22)
BOS ATL 1.01 (24) 0.89 (21) 0.90 (17) 0.94 (13) 1.10 (15)
CHA PHX 0.87 (1) 0.81 (2) 0.78 (2) 0.89 (5) 1.07 (9)
CHI MIN 1.02 (26) 0.85 (10) 0.89 (15) 1.00 (25) 1.29 (30)
CLE HOU 0.97 (20) 0.95 (28) 0.87 (12) 0.91 (9) 1.17 (25)
DET NO 1.02 (27) 0.92 (25) 0.92 (26) 0.91 (10) 1.04 (6)
GS IND 0.95 (12) 0.86 (12) 0.87 (14) 0.96 (17) 1.16 (24)
HOU CLE 0.96 (18) 0.89 (22) 0.87 (9) 1.02 (29) 1.09 (10)
IND GS 0.93 (4) 0.86 (13) 0.91 (22) 0.98 (21) 1.13 (19)
LAL UTAH 0.92 (2) 0.79 (1) 0.84 (8) 0.89 (6) 1.07 (8)
MIA TOR 0.93 (8) 0.87 (17) 0.87 (13) 1.01 (26) 1.11 (17)
MIN CHI 0.96 (19) 0.86 (16) 0.84 (7) 0.98 (20) 1.15 (23)
NO DET 0.95 (11) 0.90 (23) 0.79 (4) 1.05 (30) 1.10 (13)
OKC SA 1.10 (30) 0.82 (4) 0.90 (21) 0.94 (14) 1.11 (16)
PHX CHA 0.99 (23) 0.86 (15) 0.95 (29) 1.01 (27) 1.14 (21)
SA OKC 0.96 (13) 0.84 (9) 0.98 (30) 0.99 (22) 1.13 (20)
TOR MIA 0.92 (3) 0.87 (18) 0.90 (20) 0.95 (15) 0.96 (3)
UTAH LAL 0.96 (14) 0.87 (19) 0.80 (6) 0.86 (3) 1.05 (7)