NBA Betting Guide for 2/25/21: The Data and Public Like the Knicks and Some Overs
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks
We're getting synergy between the betting trends and algorithm picks on this game between the Sacramento Kings and New York Knicks.
oddsFire shows us that the majority of bettors are backing the home side in this game, and that comes through with 78% of the tickets and 83% of the money on the spread (Knicks -2.0). numberFire's algorithm sees some value in that, as well, rating Knicks -2.0 as a two-star recommendation out of five. The Knicks rated out as 56.8% likely to cover, good for an expected return of 8.3%.
Where the better value is, though, is on the Knicks' moneyline at -130. Those odds imply the Knicks are just 56.5% likely to win. Our algorithm gives them a 68.3% chance to beat the reeling Kings and hand them their ninth consecutive loss.
Further, we're seeing some smart money laid out on the Knicks' moneyline. Although there's already a slight majority of tickets on the Knicks (53%), a very nice 69% of the money is on the Knicks, a 16-point differential.
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies
The over/under in this game is trending down from an open of 228.5 to 227.0 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Curiously, this is in spite of a majority of the betting action coming on the over (62% of the tickets and actually 78% of the money, a 16-point differential).
My model, using adjusted offensive and defensive rating and pace from this season expected an over/under of 231.0. The Los Angeles Clippers have put fort the best adjusted offensive rating in the NBA, per my data. They have outplayed the opposing defense's defensive rating in a league-best 81.8% of games played.
The Memphis Grizzlies are a capable offense in their own right, ranking 13th in offensive rating over the past 15 games. A lot is pointing to the over, especially as it drops lower.
Denver Nuggets at Washington Wizards
Here's another over that the betting public likes a good deal with 51% of the bets but 64% of the money on the over at 236.5, actually down half a point from the open.
The Denver Nuggets have outperformed opponent defensive ratings in 71.0% of their games, and though the Washington Wizards have done so in only 37.9% of their games, 55.2% of Wizards games this year have hit the over on the closing over/under. For Denver, that mark is 67.7%.
Denver has a top-six adjusted offense but a bottom-four adjusted defense this season, which should help Washington's less-impressive offense. This game also boasts the best combined adjusted pace on the slate, thanks exclusively to Washington's tempo.
