NBA

3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on 3/16/21

Elisha Twerski  —  @ElishaTwerski Mar 16th, 2021
Zion Williamson has underwhelmed in his three games out of the break, but that should come to a swift end tonight. Which other high-salaried players should we focus on?

Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.

A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down. A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.

While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying a heavy salary to roster someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, getting a dud from a stud is likely going to leave your lineup lacking.

Let's get right into it and look at which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today.

All injury updates are via the NBA's official injury report or numberFire's player news.

Trae Young, PG, Atlanta Hawks

FanDuel Salary: $9,000

Trae Young is fresh off a dud on Sunday in which he managed only 23.4 FanDuel points, but there's no harm in going right back to him tonight.

At 117.0, the Atlanta Hawks carry the slate's third-highest implied total in their matchup with the Houston Rockets, per numberFire's matchup heat map -- you'll definitely want exposure to that offense. Rostering Young is a great way to do just that, especially considering his matchup. Over their last 15 games, Houston is ceding the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, according to FantasyPros.

Young has been a pretty reliable fantasy producer this season -- he's topped 40 FanDuel points in 24 of his 37 outings, including 21 outputs of 45.9-plus.

Of the 14 teams on tonight's slate, none play faster than the Rockets, which makes this an excellent pace-up spot for Young and the Hawks (11th of 14 in pace). This is a great spot to roster the 22-year-old at a salary that's not unreasonable.

LeBron James, SF, Los Angeles Lakers

FanDuel Salary: $10,400

Throughout their last 15 games, the Minnesota Timberwolves have surrendered the third-most fantasy points to small forwards. Of the teams suiting up tonight, the Wolves rank 2nd in pace and 12th in defensive efficiency. None of that is good news when you have to face LeBron James.

If you're scared that the Los Angeles Lakers might ease LeBron's workload on the second leg of a back-to-back, that shouldn't be much of a concern if you believe James. In the four instances this season where he's played on the back end of a back-to-back, he's averaged 33.4 minutes of action.

James took on Minnesota a month ago to the date, and he dropped 54.1 FanDuel points in that match. Given the Lakers' 116.0 implied total (fourth-highest on the slate), LeBron could easily outperform that number tonight.

numberFire's algorithm projects the King to be the top overall scorer on tonight's seven-gamer.

Zion Williamson, PF, New Orleans Pelicans

FanDuel Salary: $8,400

Three underwhelming games for Zion Williamson coming out of the All-Star break has led to a $600 drop in salary, which means this is a great opportunity to pounce.

In his last three, Zion has managed just 30.0, 33.2, and 34.9 FanDuel points. And while that seems a bit frightening on the surface, it does need some context. The New Orleans Pelicans entered the fourth quarter of those respective games up by 36, down by 23, and up by 27 -- not exactly the recipe we're looking for in DFS. However, tonight's matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers carries just a two-point spread, which means the blowout factor should be mitigated.

Zion took on the Blazers just about a month ago, and he pegged them for 36 real-life and 54.2 FanDuel points.

Portland ranks dead last on this slate in defensive efficiency, which is why the Pels have an implied total of 118 -- second-highest on the slate. At tonight's salary, Williamson would need just 42 fantasy points for 5X value (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary), and that's a number he exceeded in 10 of his 11 games prior to the break. Look for him to get back to that form.