NBA Odds Update: Is There Any Value in Betting on the Favorites?
In this edition of the 2020-21 NBA Championship Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their numberFire title odds move the most over the last month -- that will give us a better snapshot of the landscape of the league. You can read our last update here.
Teams that had strong stretches and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those that had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
If you want to see numberFire's odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings. FanDuel Sportsbook's most up-to-date championship odds can be found here. Now, here's a look at the four teams who had the most upward movement in title odds over the month of action.
Philadelphia 76ers
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 12.7%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 5.4%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +1200
No team's title odds saw a bigger bump over the last month than that of the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Sixers are banged-up, but they still sit in first place in the East as of writing. And given how likely our model sees a Philly title, there's value to be had here.
At NBA Finals odds, a championship bet on Philadelphia would cost +1200 -- that carries implied odds of 7.7%. Our algorithm has their probability at 12.7%.
Phoenix Suns
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 6.5%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 1.6%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +3000
When we started touting the Phoenix Suns in the beginning of March, they were listed at 42/1 to win it all -- those odds have now shrunk to 30/1. Fret not, however -- our model still sees them as a value bet.
To date, only the Utah Jazz and Milwaukee Bucks possess a better net rating than the Suns. Phoenix has been doing it on both sides, as they rank third in the league in defensive efficiency and eighth on the offensive end.
With a betting price of +3000, the Suns are implied to have a 3.23% chance to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy when the final buzzer sounds. Our model is far more optimistic -- 3.27% more optimistic, to be exact.
Utah Jazz
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 21.1%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 16.7%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +850
Despite the fact that 6 of the Utah Jazz's 11 losses have come in their last 12 games, numberFire's algorithm still sees them as the favorite to win it all.
Utah sports the league's best record and net rating, and they're third- and seventh-best in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively. In other words, they've earned some respect.
The key here is the sizable difference between the Jazz's implied odds -- 10.53% -- and our model's likelihood projection -- 21.1%. That 10.57% variance is larger than any other squad.
Brooklyn Nets
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 12.5%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 10.6%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +280
This writeup is different than what we usually have here, in that our model sees absolutely no value in placing a championship bet on the Brooklyn Nets. Rather, I'll just be highlighting the fact that only the three teams covered above saw their title probability increase more than Brooklyn.
Over their last 15 games -- all without Kevin Durant, mind you -- the Nets have a 13-2 record and are first in the Association in offensive efficiency and third in net rating. Considering how they played initially after they traded for James Harden, the Nets' 112.7 defensive rating (19th) during this stretch is a considerable improvement.
Nevertheless, Brooklyn's +280 betting odds imply a 26.32% chance of being crowned champions in 2020-21. numberFire's algorithm is substantially more pessimistic, with a probability of just 12.5%. There's no margin for value here.
