NBA

Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for 3/24/21

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Mar 24th, 2021
Check out each team's offensive and defensive ratings, pace, and FanDuel points allowed -- all adjusted for opponent.

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values initially included last season's data but now show only stats from the 2020-21 season.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under 		Spread Implied
Total 		Adj.
Offensive
Rating 		Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating 		Rank
DAL MIN 231.0 -8.0 119.50 116.5 9 116.1 27
ATL SAC 236.0 -3.0 119.50 114.6 10 124.5 30
UTAH BKN 228.5 -10.0 119.25 122.3 3 115.7 25
MIL BOS 230.0 -4.5 117.25 121.7 5 113.8 22
SAC ATL 236.0 3.0 116.50 113.8 12 112.9 18
MEM OKC 222.5 -5.0 113.75 107.6 20 110.6 11
CHA HOU 223.0 -3.5 113.25 110.2 17 111.7 13
LAC SA 220.0 -6.0 113.0 122.4 2 109.3 10
BOS MIL 230.0 4.5 112.75 114.3 11 108.1 9
IND DET 218.5 -6.0 112.25 110.6 16 112.1 16
DEN TOR 222.0 -2.0 112.0 121.7 4 113.4 19
PHX ORL 213.0 -10.0 111.50 117.6 8 113.7 21
CHI CLE 217.0 -6.0 111.50 110.0 18 114.6 24
MIN DAL 231.0 8.0 111.50 101.8 26 113.5 20
TOR DEN 222.0 2.0 110.0 111.2 14 112.3 17
HOU CHA 223.0 3.5 109.75 96.9 30 113.9 23
BKN UTAH 228.5 10.0 109.25 124.8 1 106.0 5
OKC MEM 222.5 5.0 108.75 99.5 27 107.7 8
SA LAC 220.0 6.0 107.0 108.0 19 111.8 14
DET IND 218.5 6.0 106.25 104.7 24 110.7 12
CLE CHI 217.0 6.0 105.50 97.7 29 112.0 15
ORL PHX 213.0 10.0 101.50 98.9 28 106.0 3

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace 		Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace 		Rank Expected
Pace 		Expected
Offensive
Rating 		Expected
Points
MEM OKC 100.5 10 101.0 7 100.8 109.1 109.9
OKC MEM 101.0 7 100.5 10 100.8 103.6 104.4
CHA HOU 99.7 13 101.8 4 100.7 111.0 111.8
HOU CHA 101.8 4 99.7 13 100.7 105.4 106.2
UTAH BKN 99.5 15 100.5 11 100.0 119.0 119.0
BKN UTAH 100.5 11 99.5 15 100.0 115.4 115.4
MIL BOS 102.0 3 97.9 23 100.0 117.8 117.7
BOS MIL 97.9 23 102.0 3 100.0 111.2 111.1
ATL SAC 98.4 20 101.4 5 99.9 119.5 119.4
SAC ATL 101.4 5 98.4 20 99.9 113.3 113.2
CHI CLE 100.7 9 98.5 18 99.6 112.3 111.8
CLE CHI 98.5 18 100.7 9 99.6 104.9 104.4
DAL MIN 98.0 22 100.8 8 99.4 116.3 115.6
MIN DAL 100.8 8 98.0 22 99.4 107.6 107.0
LAC SA 98.2 21 99.4 16 98.8 115.9 114.4
SA LAC 99.4 16 98.2 21 98.8 109.9 108.5
IND DET 99.8 12 97.0 28 98.4 111.3 109.6
DET IND 97.0 28 99.8 12 98.4 107.7 106.0
DEN TOR 96.7 29 99.5 14 98.1 117.6 115.4
TOR DEN 99.5 14 96.7 29 98.1 111.8 109.7
PHX ORL 97.3 26 98.8 17 98.0 115.6 113.3
ORL PHX 98.8 17 97.3 26 98.0 102.4 100.4

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
ATL SAC 0.98 (19) 0.94 (29) 0.91 (24) 1.00 (28) 1.16 (24)
BKN UTAH 0.92 (4) 0.80 (2) 0.85 (10) 0.92 (9) 1.09 (10)
BOS MIL 0.96 (15) 0.87 (14) 0.89 (22) 0.94 (14) 1.07 (8)
CHA HOU 1.00 (23) 0.93 (27) 0.87 (16) 0.96 (18) 1.18 (27)
CHI CLE 0.95 (14) 0.87 (15) 0.88 (17) 0.98 (22) 1.14 (21)
CLE CHI 0.94 (9) 0.86 (11) 0.84 (8) 0.95 (17) 1.25 (28)
DAL MIN 1.04 (30) 0.89 (23) 0.90 (23) 0.96 (20) 1.25 (29)
DEN TOR 0.96 (16) 0.91 (26) 0.89 (19) 1.00 (26) 1.12 (18)
DET IND 0.97 (18) 0.85 (5) 0.87 (12) 0.99 (25) 1.14 (22)
HOU CHA 1.00 (24) 0.88 (20) 0.94 (28) 1.00 (29) 1.11 (17)
IND DET 0.95 (12) 0.85 (6) 0.80 (4) 1.09 (30) 1.10 (14)
LAC SA 1.00 (25) 0.85 (9) 0.86 (11) 0.95 (16) 1.10 (12)
MEM OKC 0.95 (13) 0.85 (8) 0.95 (30) 0.98 (23) 1.13 (20)
MIL BOS 0.94 (10) 0.85 (10) 0.87 (15) 0.88 (4) 1.13 (19)
MIN DAL 0.93 (8) 0.82 (3) 0.87 (14) 0.94 (12) 1.11 (15)
OKC MEM 0.95 (11) 0.86 (13) 0.92 (27) 0.93 (11) 1.11 (16)
ORL PHX 0.88 (1) 0.80 (1) 0.78 (2) 0.89 (6) 1.10 (13)
PHX ORL 1.03 (28) 0.94 (28) 0.92 (26) 0.96 (19) 0.98 (3)
SA LAC 0.99 (21) 0.89 (22) 0.77 (1) 0.84 (1) 1.02 (5)
SAC ATL 0.99 (22) 0.88 (17) 0.88 (18) 0.90 (7) 1.09 (11)
TOR DEN 0.90 (2) 0.86 (12) 0.94 (29) 0.93 (10) 0.94 (2)
UTAH BKN 0.92 (5) 0.87 (16) 0.85 (9) 0.97 (21) 1.17 (25)