3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on 4/1/21

Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.

A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down. A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.

While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying a heavy salary to roster someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, getting a dud from a stud is likely going to leave your lineup lacking.

Let's get right into it and look at which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today.

All injury updates are via the NBA's official injury report or numberFire's player news.

Russell Westbrook, PG, Washington Wizards

Or

Kyrie Irving, PG, Brooklyn Nets

FanDuel Salaries: $11,300 and $10,000

Due to injuries without any concrete news, we're going to do this one a bit differently today. The appeal of these two stars would increase dramatically if their running mates were to be inactive -- so we'll talk about both players.

For Russell Westbrook, his ceiling is ridiculous under normal circumstances, but if Bradley Beal were to miss another game, Russ would be the slate's top play. On the season, Westbrook has a 38.3% usage rate while averaging 1.5 FanDuel points per minute with Beal off the court, per RotoGrinders. In fact, in the last three games that he's played without Beal, Westbrook has erupted for 62, 72, and 88.3 fantasy points.

The 2016-17 MVP is also a more-than-viable candidate with Beal on the court. He's recorded at least 54.8 fantasy points in five of their last seven games that they've shared the court -- including 58.1-plus in three of the last five such instances.

As for Kyrie Irving, he'd receive a sizable boost if James Harden were unable to play. With Harden and Kevin Durant off the court this season, Irving sports a 36.6% usage rate along with a 1.58 FanDuel-point-per-minute average. That'll do.

As is the case with Westbrook, Irving is in play regardless -- he's eclipsed 51 fantasy points in five of his last seven efforts, including in four straight games.

If both Beal and Harden are declared out, an Irving-Westbrook stack is very much in play. At 114.25 and 113.4, the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards have the highest and third-highest implied totals on tonight's slate, respectively -- more than enough points to justify rostering both.

However, if only one of these two takes the court without their co-star, I'd roll with just that one and pay up elsewhere. Finally, if both Beal and Harden are active, I'd be more inclined to roster Westbrook, given that few players in the league can match his ceiling.

Kawhi Leonard, SF, Los Angeles Clippers

FanDuel Salary: $9,600

Unlike Westbrook and Irving, there's no ambiguity about whether or not Kawhi Leonard will have his sidekick, as Paul George has already been declared out.

With PG13 off the court the last two seasons, Kawhi is utilizing a team-high 34.8% of possessions while averaging an impressive 1.51 FanDuel points per minute.

The matchup doesn't really get better than what he has tonight. In 2020-21, the Denver Nuggets have allowed the second-most fantasy points to small forwards per 48 minutes, according to numberFire's DvP tool. The forward spots are Denver's primary defensive weakness this season -- they rank ninth or better against each of the three other positions.

This bout between the Los Angeles Clippers and Nuggets currently has a healthy over/under of 220.5 and a 2.0-point spread, according to numberFire's Matchup Heatmap. That certainly bodes well for Leonard's outlook. numberFire's algorithm projects Kawhi to be the highest-scoring small forward and third-highest scoring player on the entire slate.

Jerami Grant, PF, Detroit Pistons

FanDuel Salary: $6,600

Calling a player with a salary at $6,600 a "stud" may seem like a bit of a stretch, but numberFire's model has Jerami Grant coming within 2.6 FanDuel points of the top-scoring power forward, so we'll make an exception here.

The first thing to note is that Grant gets a matchup against the defensive-deficient Wizards. Over their last 15 games, only two teams have surrendered more fantasy points to opposing power forwards than Washington has, according to FantasyPros.

Second, we're talking about a player who has showcased a salivating ceiling over and over again for a team that's going to be lacking bodies tonight. In addition to the players they dealt at the deadline, the Detroit Pistons will likely be sans Dennis Smith, Wayne Ellington, and Rodney McGruder. While none of those are high-volume players, every little bit adds up, especially in a matchup like this.

Grant is fresh off a 49.4-fantasy-point performance last night, making it 26 times in 44 games that he has exceeded 33 FanDuel points -- which what he needs to provide five-times value tonight.

Our algo predicts 37 FanDuel points for Grant tonight, making him the best point-per-dollar option among all players with a salary above $4,600.