NBA Betting Guide for 4/8/21: Should We Still Like the Milwaukee Moneyline?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder
We are seeing some smart money trends on the home side in this game.
The moneyline has received 60% of betting tickets on the Cleveland Cavaliers but 60% of the money on the Oklahoma City Thunder, giving us a 20-point gap between the Thunder's money and tickets data.
There is also a majority of tickets on the Cavaliers' spread (-4.0) at 66% but with 54% of the money. That leaves an 8-point gap (34% of the tickets and 46% of the money) on the Thunder to keep it within 4.0.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains out for at least a bit, but they surprisingly don't lose a whole lot of efficiency without him (because they play like a team that should win 27.4% of their games).
The Cavs play like a team that should win 26.9% of their games, according to our data.
Over their past 15 games, the Thunder are 5-10, and the Cavs are 4-11.
Our algorithm rates the Thunder spread (+4.0) and the Thunder moneyline (+156) as three-star recommendations out of five.
Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks
There is slight value across the board on this game, according to our algorithm.
It's viewing the over (228.0) as a one-star recommendation out of five and the Milwaukee Bucks' spread (+1.0) and moneyline (-106) as two-star recommendations.
Of course, Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful, yet the Bucks are still a +4.7 in net rating when he's off but still have Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton on the floor.
The Dallas Mavericks got Kristaps Porzingis back last night after a two-game absence. It's possible he would sit or be limited after netting 36.3 minutes, but that's speculation at this point. Even with he and Luka Doncic sharing the floor, Dallas has a net rating of just +2.1, 2.6 points worse than what the Bucks have in the aforementioned split.
The betting public is in agreement. North of 64% of tickets and money are on the Bucks to cover, and we're seeing 60% of the tickets and 70% of the money on Milwaukee to win outright.
Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz
The algorithm is keen on the Utah Jazz moneyline at -245 for this tilt against the 30-20 Portland Trail Blazers.
Those moneyline odds imply 71.0% win odds. Our algorithm gives them a 75.4% chance to win. That differential equates to an expected return of 6.20%, which gets it a two-star rating out of five.
The algorithm also projects a median point differential of 7.4 points, which isn't generating any actual recommendations on the 6.0-point spread, but it feels comfortable with the Jazz netting their 39th win of the season.
And once more, the public is in on Utah's moneyline: 67% of the tickets and 71% of the money is on the Jazz to win straight up.
We are seeing a slight majority of the bets (59%) and money (62%) on the Portland spread, which has narrowed the spread from 7.0 points at the open to 6.0 points. If the betting trends continue, that should get tighter, and eventually, our algo will officially like the Jazz spread, as well.
