3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 4/15/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Kent Bazemore Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-102)
Kent Bazemore has seen a big boost in minutes over his past five games, playing an average of 28.5 minutes per night in that span, compared to his season-long clip of 17.5 minutes. Bazemore has benefited from Kelly Oubre's absence as half of his games with 30-plus minutes this season (two) have come in the last three outings. Oubre is listed as doubtful for today's game against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
In the past three, Bazemore has attempted a total of 13 three-pointers, hitting 7 of them. Obviously he won't maintain that pristine three-point percentage, but he doesn't have to shoot lights out to get to the over on this line. Plus, this is a nice spot for the Golden State Warriors as they carry 116.5-point implied total against a Cleveland defense that checks in 22nd in efficiency.
Our model projects Bazemore for 1.7 made threes.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 12.5 Points (-122)
Right from the jump -- our projections have Tyrese Haliburton scoring 15.0 points tonight, making this a standout bet.
There's nothing fun about the matchup with the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix sits fifth in defensive efficiency while giving up just 21.5 points per game to shooting guards, the fifth-fewest. But this clash carries a big 231.5-point over/under, and Haliburton is due for some positive regression with his shooting.
For the year, the rookie is shooting 47.2% overall, 40.8% from three and 84.4% from the free-throw line. In April, he's been frigid from everywhere -- 39.0% overall, 28.6% from deep and 66.7% on free throws. He's bound to pick it up at some point.
As I led with, we project Haliburton for 15.0 points against the Suns.
Jayson Tatum Under 7.5 Rebounds (-130)
For the season, Jayson Tatum is pulling down 7.1 boards per night. He does, however, have 9, 10, 10 and 10 rebounds across his last four games, which is likely why the line is up at 7.5.
Tatum has a difficult matchup -- as far as rebounding goes -- versus the Los Angeles Lakers. LA has permitted just 28.8 rebounds per game to opposing backcourts this season, the second-fewest. And now they have Andre Drummond to gobble up boards, which is exactly what he's doing -- snagging double-digit rebounds in four straight. Over the past seven games, the Lakers are giving up just 9.8 rebounds per night to power forwards.
Our algorithm projects Tatum for just 6.5 boards tonight.
