NBA

Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for 4/19/21

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Apr 19th, 2021

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values initially included last season's data but now show only stats from the 2020-21 season.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under 		Spread Implied
Total 		Adj.
Offensive
Rating 		Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating 		Rank
WSH OKC 230.5 -11.0 120.75 104.8 24 114.1 22
MIL PHX 233.0 -3.0 118.0 120.3 5 106.9 5
PHI GS 226.0 -8.5 117.25 110.5 16 109.0 7
DEN MEM 226.5 -8.0 117.25 122.6 2 109.2 8
SA IND 232.0 -1.0 116.50 108.1 19 112.0 12
IND SA 232.0 1.0 115.50 111.0 15 111.2 11
PHX MIL 233.0 3.0 115.0 118.4 7 109.5 9
MIA HOU 217.5 -9.0 113.25 105.3 23 115.6 26
BOS CHI 217.5 -6.0 111.75 115.4 10 114.2 23
UTAH LAL 215.0 -7.0 111.0 121.8 3 100.5 1
OKC WSH 230.5 11.0 109.75 95.9 30 113.6 19
MEM DEN 226.5 8.0 109.25 111.9 13 112.8 16
GS PHI 226.0 8.5 108.75 107.3 21 101.9 2
CLE DET 212.5 -2.5 107.50 98.1 29 113.1 17
CHI BOS 217.5 6.0 105.75 110.0 17 112.2 14
DET CLE 212.5 2.5 105.0 104.4 25 113.8 21
HOU MIA 217.5 9.0 104.25 99.7 27 108.5 6
LAL UTAH 215.0 7.0 104.0 107.5 20 104.8 4

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace 		Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace 		Rank Expected
Pace 		Expected
Offensive
Rating 		Expected
Points
WSH OKC 104.3 1 101.8 6 103.0 109.5 112.8
OKC WSH 101.8 6 104.3 1 103.0 104.7 107.9
PHI GS 101.2 9 102.4 3 101.8 109.8 111.7
GS PHI 102.4 3 101.2 9 101.8 104.6 106.5
SA IND 99.3 14 100.5 10 99.9 110.1 110.0
IND SA 100.5 10 99.3 14 99.9 111.1 111.1
MIL PHX 102.0 5 97.3 27 99.6 113.6 113.2
PHX MIL 97.3 27 102.0 5 99.6 113.9 113.5
MIA HOU 96.5 28 101.3 8 98.9 110.4 109.2
HOU MIA 101.3 8 96.5 28 98.9 104.1 102.9
BOS CHI 97.8 22 99.5 13 98.7 114.8 113.3
CHI BOS 99.5 13 97.8 22 98.7 111.1 109.6
UTAH LAL 99.2 15 97.8 23 98.5 111.1 109.5
LAL UTAH 97.8 23 99.2 15 98.5 106.1 104.6
DEN MEM 96.3 29 100.2 11 98.3 115.9 113.8
MEM DEN 100.2 11 96.3 29 98.3 112.4 110.4
CLE DET 97.9 21 97.7 25 97.8 105.6 103.3
DET CLE 97.7 25 97.9 21 97.8 109.1 106.7

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
BOS CHI 0.97 (15) 0.86 (13) 0.83 (9) 0.95 (14) 1.23 (30)
CHI BOS 0.93 (6) 0.84 (7) 0.87 (15) 0.87 (3) 1.12 (17)
CLE DET 0.97 (16) 0.88 (21) 0.79 (2) 1.05 (30) 1.12 (16)
DEN MEM 0.95 (11) 0.88 (19) 0.88 (22) 0.92 (8) 1.19 (23)
DET CLE 0.96 (14) 0.88 (18) 0.87 (18) 0.96 (19) 1.14 (20)
GS PHI 0.95 (9) 0.87 (17) 0.82 (5) 0.89 (4) 0.96 (2)
HOU MIA 0.91 (3) 0.86 (12) 0.84 (11) 0.92 (10) 1.06 (7)
IND SA 1.01 (25) 0.85 (8) 0.86 (14) 0.92 (9) 1.12 (18)
LAL UTAH 0.94 (7) 0.79 (2) 0.84 (12) 0.89 (6) 1.11 (15)
MEM DEN 0.89 (2) 0.84 (5) 0.93 (29) 0.96 (17) 0.94 (1)
MIA HOU 1.02 (26) 0.93 (28) 0.89 (24) 0.96 (16) 1.22 (29)
MIL PHX 0.89 (1) 0.77 (1) 0.79 (3) 0.90 (7) 1.09 (11)
OKC WSH 1.04 (29) 0.90 (25) 0.89 (23) 0.95 (15) 1.20 (27)
PHI GS 0.95 (12) 0.86 (9) 0.87 (16) 1.00 (26) 1.19 (24)
PHX MIL 0.97 (17) 0.87 (14) 0.90 (25) 0.96 (18) 1.10 (13)
SA IND 0.97 (19) 0.86 (11) 0.87 (17) 0.99 (24) 1.19 (25)
UTAH LAL 0.97 (21) 0.84 (6) 0.82 (6) 0.89 (5) 1.03 (5)
WSH OKC 0.99 (22) 0.90 (24) 0.95 (30) 1.01 (28) 1.16 (22)