NBA Betting Guide for Friday 4/23/21: The Public Likes the Nuggets Tonight
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets
The total (211.5), the spread (Charlotte Hornets -1.5), and the moneyline (Charlotte -120) are all in play in this game.
Firstly, the over/under of 211.5 is a bit too low, according to numberFire's algorithm, which considers the over a two-star recommendation out of five. The model viewing this game as 58.9% likely to hit the over, good for an expected return of 12.5%.
The betting public is also big on the over, and we're seeing 76% of the money come in on the over for this game.
Further, our algorithm likes the Hornets to get their 29th win of the season and rates them as 63.0% likely to win -- by an average of 3.5 points. Charlotte, then, is 56.7% likely to cover the spread.
Charlotte is also receiving 62% of the bets and 58% of the money to cover the spread.
Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets
The Los Angeles Clippers are heavy favorites at 9.5 points over the Houston Rockets, but there isn't quite as much value on the moneyline or spread as there seems to be on the over/under (223.0).
The betting public is erring on the side of the over to the tune of 61% of the tickets and 70% of the money.
Our model anticipates a 226.8-point game here as far as the median projections go. That makes the over 56.9% likely to occur (for an expected return of 8.6%).
Over the past 15 games, the Clippers lead the NBA in offensive rating (119.3). Their offensive rating does scale back to 113.7 without Kawhi Leonard but with Paul George.
What helps more, though, is that the Rockets are not quite as bad as they used to be, ranking 24th (109.8) while allowing 118.8 points per 100 possessions on the defensive end.
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors
There's a tight spread out in the Golden State Warriors/Denver Nuggets game with the visiting Nuggets 2.0-point favorites (down from 3.0 at the open).
The public is placing 65% of the money on Denver -2.0 in this game, which is a tinge higher than the 59% of the tickets. That's always welcomed to see.
Our model is projecting them to cover 52.5% of the time, so it's a tight gap from that perspective. I'm not sure it should be considered quite so close, though, based on the underlying data for each team recently.
It's quite possible that the 116-107 win for Golden State on April 12th is impacting things.
Over the past 15 games, the Nuggets are 12-3 with a net rating of +5.3, and the Warriors are 7-8 with a net rating of -0.5, so it's a pretty sizable gap for the Nuggets.
Using those past-15 numbers, my model sees Denver -4.1 as the anticipated point spread.
