NBA

Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for Wednesday 5/5/21

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 May 5th, 2021

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values now include only data since the NBA trade deadline.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under 		Spread Implied
Total 		Adj.
Offensive
Rating 		Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating 		Rank
MIL WSH 245.0 -7.0 126.0 116.9 8 107.2 5
IND SAC 242.5 -6.0 124.25 112.1 16 123.7 30
MEM MIN 236.5 -4.0 120.25 116.3 11 118.8 25
WSH MIL 245.0 7.0 119.0 110.6 17 111.1 11
PHI HOU 221.5 -15.0 118.25 109.2 19 121.5 28
POR CLE 225.5 -11.0 118.25 121.5 2 119.0 27
SAC IND 242.5 6.0 118.25 113.6 13 115.3 22
MIN MEM 236.5 4.0 116.25 106.9 21 111.9 14
BOS ORL 218.5 -10.5 114.50 113.2 14 118.8 26
PHX ATL 227.5 -1.5 114.50 124.1 1 115.3 23
UTAH SA 219.5 -7.0 113.25 118.3 5 113.4 17
ATL PHX 227.5 1.5 113.0 117.4 6 112.5 15
DEN NY 214.0 -3.0 108.50 119.9 3 101.5 3
CLE POR 225.5 11.0 107.25 102.1 26 115.2 21
SA UTAH 219.5 7.0 106.25 112.1 15 101.2 1
NY DEN 214.0 3.0 105.50 116.9 7 108.1 6
ORL BOS 218.5 10.5 104.0 96.0 29 110.0 9
HOU PHI 221.5 15.0 103.25 102.0 27 102.3 4

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace 		Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace 		Rank Expected
Pace 		Expected
Offensive
Rating 		Expected
Points
MEM MIN 100.3 10 106.0 1 103.2 117.6 121.3
MIN MEM 106.0 1 100.3 10 103.2 109.4 112.9
MIL WSH 102.8 6 103.1 5 102.9 112.0 115.3
WSH MIL 103.1 5 102.8 6 102.9 110.9 114.1
IND SAC 104.1 4 99.8 11 102.0 117.9 120.2
SAC IND 99.8 11 104.1 4 102.0 114.4 116.7
PHI HOU 99.7 12 101.4 8 100.6 115.3 116.0
HOU PHI 101.4 8 99.7 12 100.6 102.2 102.8
BOS ORL 99.2 15 98.0 19 98.6 116.0 114.4
ORL BOS 98.0 19 99.2 15 98.6 103.0 101.6
POR CLE 99.6 13 96.9 23 98.2 120.2 118.1
CLE POR 96.9 23 99.6 13 98.2 108.6 106.7
UTAH SA 98.0 18 97.8 20 97.9 115.8 113.4
SA UTAH 97.8 20 98.0 18 97.9 106.7 104.4
PHX ATL 96.6 25 97.5 21 97.0 119.7 116.2
ATL PHX 97.5 21 96.6 25 97.0 114.9 111.5
DEN NY 96.3 27 96.0 28 96.2 110.7 106.4
NY DEN 96.0 28 96.3 27 96.2 112.5 108.2

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
ATL PHX 0.92 (2) 0.78 (3) 0.80 (8) 0.88 (4) 1.03 (4)
BOS ORL 0.99 (19) 0.93 (27) 0.89 (25) 1.02 (28) 1.19 (26)
CLE POR 0.98 (16) 0.84 (11) 0.92 (27) 1.01 (25) 1.07 (10)
DEN NY 0.93 (4) 0.80 (4) 0.87 (22) 0.83 (2) 1.1 (16)
HOU PHI 0.92 (3) 0.82 (9) 0.73 (2) 0.96 (16) 1.02 (2)
IND SAC 1.03 (23) 0.93 (26) 0.83 (14) 0.92 (13) 1.17 (23)
MEM MIN 1.11 (29) 0.90 (24) 0.91 (26) 1.01 (27) 1.08 (12)
MIL WSH 1.05 (24) 0.92 (25) 0.87 (21) 0.88 (6) 1.1 (17)
MIN MEM 0.97 (11) 0.88 (20) 0.78 (5) 0.88 (7) 1.34 (29)
NY DEN 1.01 (21) 0.77 (1) 0.84 (17) 0.98 (20) 0.95 (1)
ORL BOS 0.97 (13) 0.88 (21) 0.82 (10) 0.88 (5) 1.09 (14)
PHI HOU 1.09 (28) 0.94 (28) 0.98 (29) 0.94 (15) 1.28 (28)
PHX ATL 0.95 (9) 0.82 (10) 0.86 (18) 1.06 (29) 1.02 (3)
POR CLE 1.06 (25) 0.88 (22) 0.88 (23) 0.97 (19) 1.07 (11)
SA UTAH 0.98 (18) 0.81 (5) 0.84 (15) 0.80 (1) 1.07 (8)
SAC IND 0.98 (17) 0.89 (23) 0.93 (28) 1 (23) 1.39 (30)
UTAH SA 0.95 (10) 0.86 (16) 0.82 (9) 0.87 (3) 1.23 (27)
WSH MIL 0.97 (12) 0.87 (18) 0.88 (24) 0.91 (11) 1.15 (21)