NBA

Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for Tuesday 5/11/21

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 May 11th, 2021

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values now include only data since the NBA trade deadline.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under 		Spread Implied
Total 		Adj.
Offensive
Rating 		Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating 		Rank
MIL ORL 232.5 -14.0 123.25 119.1 6 121.0 27
PHI IND 232.5 -6.5 119.50 111.3 18 113.9 17
BKN CHI 232.5 -5.5 119.0 115.4 11 112.5 15
MIN DET 227.5 -7.5 117.50 109.4 20 114.2 18
SAC OKC 224.0 -10.5 117.25 112.5 15 124.1 29
PHX GS 229.5 -5.0 117.25 123.8 1 109.8 9
DAL MEM 227.5 -2.0 114.75 117.0 9 112.4 14
LAC TOR 216.0 -12.0 114.0 118.6 7 110.5 11
CHI BKN 232.5 5.5 113.50 107.5 22 114.4 21
MIA BOS 224.5 -2.0 113.25 118.0 8 111.0 12
IND PHI 232.5 6.5 113.0 111.0 19 102.8 4
MEM DAL 227.5 2.0 112.75 116.1 10 110.3 10
GS PHX 229.5 5.0 112.25 112.5 14 115.3 23
DEN CHA 217.5 -5.5 111.50 120.0 4 111.8 13
BOS MIA 224.5 2.0 111.25 114.0 12 114.4 20
DET MIN 227.5 7.5 110.0 102.5 26 118.5 25
LAL NY 213.5 -5.5 109.50 99.9 27 102.1 1
ORL MIL 232.5 14.0 109.25 94.3 29 114.5 22
OKC SAC 224.0 10.5 106.75 85.2 30 119.2 26
CHA DEN 217.5 5.5 106.0 103.2 24 109.3 7
NY LAL 213.5 5.5 104.0 113.6 13 102.2 2
TOR LAC 216.0 12.0 102.0 108.3 21 107.7 5

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace 		Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace 		Rank Expected
Pace 		Expected
Offensive
Rating 		Expected
Points
DET MIN 98.5 16 105.5 1 102.0 110.5 112.7
MIN DET 105.5 1 98.5 16 102.0 111.8 114.0
OKC SAC 104.0 3 99.5 13 101.7 102.2 104.0
SAC OKC 99.5 13 104.0 3 101.7 118.3 120.3
IND PHI 103.6 4 99.6 12 101.6 106.9 108.6
PHI IND 99.6 12 103.6 4 101.6 112.6 114.4
CHI BKN 97.0 24 104.8 2 100.9 110.9 112.0
BKN CHI 104.8 2 97.0 24 100.9 113.9 115.0
MIL ORL 102.8 7 98.3 17 100.6 120.1 120.7
ORL MIL 98.3 17 102.8 7 100.6 104.4 105.0
GS PHX 100.1 9 96.8 25 98.4 113.9 112.1
PHX GS 96.8 25 100.1 9 98.4 116.8 115.0
DAL MEM 97.2 22 99.6 11 98.4 114.7 112.9
MEM DAL 99.6 11 97.2 22 98.4 113.2 111.4
LAC TOR 95.7 29 99.0 15 97.4 114.5 111.5
TOR LAC 99.0 15 95.7 29 97.4 108.0 105.1
LAL NY 98.0 19 96.7 26 97.3 101.0 98.3
NY LAL 96.7 26 98.0 19 97.3 107.9 105.0
BOS MIA 99.4 14 95.2 30 97.3 114.2 111.1
MIA BOS 95.2 30 99.4 14 97.3 114.5 111.4
DEN CHA 96.6 27 97.0 23 96.8 115.9 112.3
CHA DEN 97.0 23 96.6 27 96.8 106.2 102.9

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
BKN CHI 0.98 (17) 0.85 (13) 0.82 (12) 0.92 (10) 1.12 (15)
BOS MIA 0.92 (2) 0.88 (17) 0.76 (3) 0.91 (8) 1.05 (7)
CHA DEN 1.00 (20) 0.78 (2) 0.88 (23) 0.97 (19) 0.95 (1)
CHI BKN 0.97 (12) 0.83 (9) 0.83 (13) 1.00 (24) 1.15 (19)
DAL MEM 0.98 (16) 0.89 (20) 0.80 (6) 0.88 (4) 1.33 (30)
DEN CHA 0.89 (1) 0.87 (15) 0.87 (21) 1.04 (29) 1.11 (13)
DET MIN 1.10 (29) 0.89 (22) 0.93 (28) 1.00 (22) 1.07 (8)
GS PHX 0.93 (4) 0.77 (1) 0.82 (11) 0.92 (11) 1.04 (6)
IND PHI 0.92 (3) 0.80 (5) 0.74 (2) 0.98 (20) 1.08 (10)
LAC TOR 0.93 (6) 0.82 (8) 0.82 (10) 0.96 (18) 1.09 (12)
LAL NY 0.95 (8) 0.79 (3) 0.88 (22) 0.82 (1) 1.15 (20)
MEM DAL 0.97 (13) 0.84 (11) 0.72 (1) 0.89 (6) 1.04 (3)
MIA BOS 0.97 (11) 0.87 (14) 0.81 (8) 0.89 (5) 1.14 (18)
MIL ORL 1.00 (19) 0.94 (28) 0.89 (25) 1.02 (26) 1.22 (27)
MIN DET 1.04 (24) 0.93 (27) 0.78 (5) 0.92 (14) 1.19 (25)
NY LAL 0.95 (9) 0.79 (4) 0.81 (7) 0.96 (17) 1.04 (4)
OKC SAC 1.03 (23) 0.90 (24) 0.83 (14) 0.91 (9) 1.17 (23)
ORL MIL 0.99 (18) 0.90 (23) 0.89 (24) 0.92 (13) 1.16 (22)
PHI IND 1.01 (21) 0.92 (25) 0.91 (27) 1.00 (23) 1.29 (28)
PHX GS 1.02 (22) 0.88 (16) 0.85 (18) 0.92 (12) 1.12 (14)
SAC OKC 1.12 (30) 1.04 (30) 0.99 (30) 1.09 (30) 1.16 (21)
TOR LAC 0.93 (5) 0.81 (7) 0.81 (9) 0.90 (7) 1.07 (9)