NBA

Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for Thursday 5/13/21

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 May 13th, 2021

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values now include only data since the NBA trade deadline.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under 		Spread Implied
Total 		Adj.
Offensive
Rating 		Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating 		Rank
MIL IND 234.5 -8.5 121.50 118.5 8 112.9 15
DEN MIN 235.5 -6.0 120.75 119.9 4 116.6 25
ATL ORL 227.5 -12.5 120.0 120.2 3 120.3 28
MEM SAC 228.5 -7.0 117.75 118.0 9 118.7 26
PHX POR 227.5 -5.5 116.50 124.4 1 113.3 17
LAC CHA 223.5 -8.0 115.75 119.2 7 112.0 13
MIN DEN 235.5 6.0 114.75 109.2 20 109.2 7
CHI TOR 218.5 -9.0 113.75 107.4 22 111.1 10
IND MIL 234.5 8.5 113.0 111.0 18 113.6 18
POR PHX 227.5 5.5 111.0 123.5 2 116.3 24
SAC MEM 228.5 7.0 110.75 112.7 14 112.3 14
NY SA 216.5 -4.5 110.50 112.5 15 115.5 22
PHI MIA 218.5 -1.5 110.0 110.2 19 114.8 21
MIA PHI 218.5 1.5 108.50 119.3 6 102.8 3
CHA LAC 223.5 8.0 107.75 103.4 25 107.0 5
ORL ATL 227.5 12.5 107.50 94.0 29 115.7 23
SA NY 216.5 4.5 106.0 112.2 16 101.6 1
TOR CHI 218.5 9.0 104.75 107.5 21 113.2 16

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace 		Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace 		Rank Expected
Pace 		Expected
Offensive
Rating 		Expected
Points
MIL IND 102.9 6 103.2 5 103.0 115.7 119.2
IND MIL 103.2 5 102.9 6 103.0 112.3 115.7
DEN MIN 97.0 24 105.7 1 101.3 118.2 119.8
MIN DEN 105.7 1 97.0 24 101.3 109.2 110.7
MEM SAC 99.6 10 99.6 11 99.6 118.3 117.9
SAC MEM 99.6 11 99.6 10 99.6 112.5 112.1
PHX POR 96.6 27 99.6 13 98.1 118.9 116.6
POR PHX 99.6 13 96.6 27 98.1 119.9 117.6
CHI TOR 96.9 25 99.1 14 98.0 109.3 107.1
TOR CHI 99.1 14 96.9 25 98.0 110.4 108.2
ATL ORL 97.5 21 98.4 17 98.0 120.2 117.8
ORL ATL 98.4 17 97.5 21 98.0 104.8 102.7
PHI MIA 99.1 15 95.4 30 97.2 112.5 109.4
MIA PHI 95.4 30 99.1 15 97.2 111.0 108.0
NY SA 96.5 28 97.9 19 97.2 114.0 110.8
SA NY 97.9 19 96.5 28 97.2 106.9 103.9
LAC CHA 95.8 29 97.3 23 96.6 115.6 111.6
CHA LAC 97.3 23 95.8 29 96.6 105.2 101.6

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
ATL ORL 0.99 (18) 0.93 (27) 0.89 (26) 1.04 (29) 1.22 (27)
CHA LAC 0.93 (5) 0.81 (7) 0.81 (8) 0.91 (8) 1.05 (7)
CHI TOR 0.92 (3) 0.83 (8) 0.84 (13) 0.96 (17) 1.10 (12)
DEN MIN 1.09 (28) 0.89 (19) 0.92 (28) 1.00 (23) 1.05 (8)
IND MIL 0.98 (15) 0.89 (22) 0.88 (24) 0.93 (14) 1.15 (22)
LAC CHA 0.87 (1) 0.87 (14) 0.87 (21) 1.04 (28) 1.13 (18)
MEM SAC 1.03 (22) 0.90 (24) 0.85 (18) 0.90 (6) 1.17 (24)
MIA PHI 0.92 (2) 0.80 (5) 0.74 (2) 0.99 (22) 1.07 (10)
MIL IND 1.01 (21) 0.92 (25) 0.90 (27) 0.99 (20) 1.29 (28)
MIN DEN 1.00 (20) 0.79 (4) 0.88 (23) 0.98 (19) 0.95 (1)
NY SA 0.94 (7) 0.90 (23) 0.85 (19) 0.87 (3) 1.21 (26)
ORL ATL 0.99 (16) 0.85 (12) 0.84 (17) 1.03 (27) 1.02 (2)
PHI MIA 0.92 (4) 0.87 (15) 0.78 (4) 0.93 (12) 1.03 (3)
PHX POR 0.97 (12) 0.83 (10) 0.85 (20) 1.02 (26) 1.06 (9)
POR PHX 0.93 (6) 0.79 (3) 0.81 (9) 0.93 (11) 1.03 (4)
SA NY 0.95 (8) 0.78 (2) 0.88 (22) 0.81 (1) 1.15 (21)
SAC MEM 0.97 (11) 0.89 (20) 0.80 (6) 0.88 (4) 1.31 (30)
TOR CHI 0.99 (19) 0.85 (13) 0.84 (15) 0.93 (13) 1.12 (14)