NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 6/2/21: Will the Clippers Separate From the Mavericks?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Washington Wizards (+198) at Philadelphia 76ers (-240)
Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -6.5
Total: 230.0
The Washington Wizards picked up a win in the last matchup of this series to avoid a sweep, and now, the 76ers are listing Joel Embiid as doubtful for tonight due to right knee soreness. The Wizards have key injury, as well: the sharpshooting Davis Bertans is out with a calf strain.
The 76ers have been viable without Embiid, at least. In 21 games without the star center this season, the 76ers are 10-11 with a net rating of -0.3, according to PBPStats.
Here's where things get sticky for Washington. In 15 games without Bertans, the Wizards are just 5-10 with a net rating of -7.2 -- and a weak offensive rating of 104.6.
The betting public isn't too worried about Embiid's injury. We're seeing 63% of the money coming in on them to cover the 6.5-point spread, and 80% of the money placed on moneyline wagers is for the 76ers to close out the series.
numberFire's model lists the 76ers' moneyline as a full five-star recommendation out of five and the 76ers to cover as a three-star recommendation. That's the clear way to approach this game.
Atlanta Hawks (+102) at New York Knicks (-120)
Spread: New York Knicks -1.5
Total: 208.5
numberFire's algorithm is seeing less value on this game but is taking interest in the Knicks to extend the series.
New York's moneyline is receiving a two-star tag from our model. In total, our algorithm sees the Knicks as 63.6% likely to beat the Hawks, but the -120 moneyline suggests only a 54.6% probability.
Our algorithm is also indicating a 57.2% probability that the Knicks win by at least 2 points to cover the 1.5-point spread, earning the Knicks' spread a two-star recommendation of its own.
The betting public is also a little split but is siding with the Hawks -- barely. Thus far, 56% of the money is on Atlanta to cover the spread, and 60% is on them to win outright, thus ending the series.
My personal model sees this one tight, as well, so I'm more inclined just to look elsewhere for bets tonight, but if pressed for a primary bet, it'd be the Knicks' moneyline.
Memphis Grizzlies (+385) at Utah Jazz (-500)
Spread: Utah Jazz -9.5
Total: 225.5
There's a pretty hefty spread in this game as the Jazz try to close out the Memphis Grizzlies. The -500 moneyline indicates a high probability (83.3%) for the Jazz to do just that.
However, our model at numberFire gives Utah a 78.7% chance to win, falling shy of the moneyline implications, which is why Memphis +390 is rating out as a one-star recommendation as far as moneyline wagers go.
The more reasonable recommendation is for Memphis to cover that 9.5-point spread. That's where 44% of the money is going on all spread bets, so it's close, and numberFire's algorithm sees the average point differential for this game as 8.6 points in favor of Utah.
The betting public is heavy on the over as always, with 86% of the tickets and 79% of the money, but we're seeing numberFire's algorithm recommending the under and rating it as 58.5% likely. For what it's worth, six of seven matchups between these two teams did hit the posted over.
Memphis +9.5 is looking like the best consensus play in this game.
Dallas Mavericks (+240) at Los Angeles Clippers (-295)
Spread: Los Angeles Clippers -7.0
Total: 217.5
Based on how this series has gone so far, the Dallas Mavericks will win because they're the road team, though that's not where the bookmakers are leaning. The Clippers' moneyline odds suggest they're 74.7% likely to forge ahead 3-2 in this series.
numberFire's model, by comparison, sees them as 70.7% likely to win, which leads to no pick on the moneyline for this game by our advanced algorithm.
The tepid interest in an efficient line is a trend across the spread (Dallas +7.0 is a one-star recommendation) and over/under (the under is also a one-star recommendation) by our model.
The betting public is split on the spread: 51% of the bet slips are on Dallas to cover, and that comes with 43% of the money. Everyone loves to bet the over, so it's no surprise that 78% of the money is on the over in this game.
My model does like the over and anticipated an over/under of 224.8. Over thousands of simulations, 72.7% of the games in my model hit the over at 217.5.
Dallas to cover the spread and the over are where I'm going here.
