FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 6/7/21
The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.
Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's two-game playoff slate, which locks at 7:30 PM Eastern.
All injury updates are via the NBA's official injury report or numberFire's player news.
Point Guard
Kyrie Irving ($9,700) - With James Harden out of the lineup, the scoring responsibility will primarily on the shoulder of Irving and Kevin Durant. Irving played a total of 44.6 minutes in Game 1 and hoisted 26 shots in the process. The final result was 48 FanDuel points, and his ceiling could be even higher tonight. numberFire's algorithm has Irving as the second-best point-per-dollar play at point guard.
Mike James ($4,800) - After Harden reinjured himself in the opening minutes of Game 1, it was James who stepped in and took on a larger role. In 30.3 minutes of action, James totaled 12 real-life points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 24.9 FanDuel points. Let's not forget, James entered the postseason with outputs of 33.4 and 34.8 fantasy points in two of his final four games. He's a viable source of salary relief tonight, and our model agrees, projecting him to be the top value play on the entire slate.
Shooting Guard
Devin Booker ($8,700) - In Round 1 against the Los Angeles Lakers, Booker certainly did not look like a player making the first postseason appearance of his career. The 24-year-old racked up 30 or more points in four of the six games, including a whopping 47 to close out the series. As for fantasy, the All-Star did produce 47.9, 51.4, and 64.7 FanDuel points in three of the six games. Our models have him outscoring the next-closest two-guard by 20.4 fantasy points.
Bryn Forbes ($3,900) - The Milwaukee Bucks hit on just 6 of their 30 attempts from downtown in Game 1, and one potential adjustment could be to get sharpshooter Bryn Forbes more attempts tonight. In the final three games of the first-round series with the Miami Heat, Forbes averaged 10.0 three-point attempts while hitting at a 53.3% clip. That volume resulted in him totaling 17.6, 24.4, and 26.0 FanDuel points in those three contests, and a total in the 20s would make him a top value play tonight.
Small Forward
Michael Porter Jr. ($7,800) - If the Denver Nuggets are going to be able to win this series with the Phoenix Suns, they'll likely need Porter Jr. to be the player that showed up in the final two games of the series against the Portland Trail Blazers. In those contests, MPJ garnered 26 points apiece, and put up 40.0 and 47.9 FanDuel points in the process. Kevin Durant ($10,700) could easily finish as the slate's top scorer, but fitting him, Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300), and other studs in your lineup will prove to be a tall task. Porter Jr. is a solid alternative.
Joe Harris ($5,500) - Harris dropped 26.4 FanDuel points in Game 1, and he should continue to have success against a Milwaukee defense that will be focused on slowing down Irving and Durant. According to FantasyPros, the Bucks ceded the fifth-most made threes to opposing small forwards during the regular season, as well as the fourth-most fantasy points.
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300) - Let's face it -- the Brooklyn Nets don't have anyone who can slow down Giannis, who recorded 34 points on 16-of-24 shooting in Game 1. Antetokounmpo (stubborn head coach) was limited to just 35.3 minutes in the opener, and it's a pretty easy bet that he'll surpass that as Milwaukee looks to even the series tonight. numberFire's algo projects the two-time MVP to be the slate's top scorer and second-best point-per-dollar play.
Blake Griffin ($5,100) - The current total for the matchup between Brooklyn and Milwaukee is 15.5 points higher than the one between Phoenix and Denver, so if it seems like I'm prioritizing that game, there's good reason for it. Harden's absence in the opener opened up a ton of usage for Griffin, who responded by totaling 18 points, 14 rebounds, and 42.3 FanDuel points in 35.1 minutes of action. While it'll be difficult for Blake to repeat his highest fantasy output (by 9.3 points) of the season, he should still be able to surpass the 25.5 FanDuel points he needs for five-times value at his salary.
Center
Nikola Jokic ($10,800) - At center, the gap between our top projected player (Jokic) and the player in second is 23.2 FanDuel points, which is the second-largest discrepancy behind power forward. The Serbian amassed at least 52.6 fantasy points in five of the six games against Portland, and that includes a 77.7-point outburst in Game 5. According to numberFire's DvP tool, Phoenix ranked sixth or better versus every position this season except for center, against which they came in 10th. The likely MVP pegged the Suns for more than 60 fantasy points in two of their three matchups in 2020-21.
