NBA Betting Guide for Friday 6/25/21: Tracking the Smart Money in Bucks/Hawks Game 2
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Atlanta Hawks (+290) at Milwaukee Bucks (-360)
Spread: Milwaukee Bucks -8.0
Total: 225.0
The betting opportunities on this game are pretty efficient, according to the model, which makes it tough to take a stand.
However, there are some smart money indications in a few spots, which is something we can consider prioritizing.
Our model isn't recommending a spread pick. The median projected score in this game is 118.9 to 109.9, so a 9.0-point gap, which is right close to the spread of Bucks -8.0. Therefore, taking either side of the spread is tied to a negative expected return, per our algorithm.
The public is taking a side on the spread, for what it's worth, and it's on the Atlanta Hawks. So far, 63% of the spread bets are on the Hawks to cover, but that's actually attached to 89% of the money, making for a 26-point differential. Likely in that 63% of tickets, then, are some big bets, which we can look to follow.
The inverse is the case on the Bucks' moneyline. There are 66% of the bets on Milwaukee to even out the series at 1-1, and those come with 83% of the money, a 17-point differential.
Our model also likes the Bucks to get the win and considers the Bucks -360 a one-star recommendation out of five.
As for the over/under, our model is barely on the over, rating it as a one-star opportunity. The over is popping up as 57.0% likely to hit, good for an 8.9% expected return.
Surprisingly, the public is split on the over/under (it usually loves the over) with 54% of the bets on the under.
Given everything, I like tailing the smart money with the Hawks +8.0 and the Bucks' moneyline.
