3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 11/15/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Isaiah Stewart Over 8.5 Rebounds (-110)

We're going to stick to some rebounding props for tonight as far as featured options go.

Isaiah Stewart is projected for 9.3 rebounds across 29.1 minutes tonight, via numberFire's model.

Stewart has hauled in 6.8 rebounds per game yet should be due for some pretty significant rebounding regression.

He has averaged 15.6 rebounding chances per game, so that means he's converted on only 43.9% of his rebounding chances. The NBA average is 57.0%.

At a league-average rate, Stewart would be averaging 8.9 rebounds per contest.

Put another way: his expected rebounding rate is 0.37 per minute. His actual rebounding rate this season is only 0.29 per minute.

Using his baseline of 9.3 in my prop simulator, we should view Stewart as 58.6% likely to go over his rebounding prop.

Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 5.5 Rebounds (-114)

Jaren Jackson Jr. is also primed for rebounding regression.

Jackson Jr. is averaging 5.6 rebounds per game with a 52.5% rebounding conversion rate.

So, he's already above his prop in terms of per-game results, but we should be anticipating even better rebounding luck moving forward.

numberFire's model projects Jackson Jr. for 6.1 boards tonight across 30.2 minutes against the Houston Rockets, who rank just below the NBA average in estimated rebounding rate.

Using his 6.1-rebound projection, my model considers Jackson to be 58.0% likely to get to 6-plus boards.

That means we could bet the over even at -138 odds.

Zach LaVine Under 5.5 Rebounds (+108)

Here's an under -- but a plus-money under.

numberFire is projecting Zach LaVine for only 5.2 rebounds tonight, and whenever you see plus money odds that agree with our prop, it's basically just an auto-bet option.

But let's dig in even a tinge more to see if the projection makes sense.

It does.

LaVine's minute projection (34.8) and rebound projection (5.2) works out to 0.15 rebounds per minute. His in-season rate is 0.16, so it's not that far off, and his four-year average is actually only 0.14.

His expected rebounding rate is in the middle at 0.15, where numberFire has him projected.

LaVine, with a 5.2-rebound baseline, is 53.3% likely to stay under this prop, so we can go forward at the plus-money odds.