3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 2/9/22
Player props are a fun way to bet the NBA without having to worry about the zaniness that last-minute injuries can cause in terms of a spread or a game total.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make some cash.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Fred VanVleet Over 3.5 Three-Point Makes (-122)
There's a steep -122 price (55% implied probability) that Fred VanVleet bangs four triples home tonight. It's still well worth it.
VanVleet is enduring arguably his worst shooting slump of the season. Since January 15th, VanVleet is shooting just 36.1% from the field overall, and he's shot just 36.0% from deep. He still hasn't sunk this low.
In that timespan, he still has posted at least four makes in 9 of the 16 games he's played. He also hasn't lost confidence, offering up 11.4 attempts from deep in that span. At that rate, he'd need to shoot just 35.1% tonight to pass this over.
It helps that the Raptors have a solid 108.25-point implied team total in Oklahoma City tonight. OKC has also allowed the third-most three-point attempts per game (38.6) in the entire NBA. They're not exactly stingy defending the long ball.
Even at the cost to acquire, this bet flew off the page of FanDuel Sportsbook for the All-Star.
Luguentz Dort Over 4.5 Rebounds (+120)
With a prop on the Thunder's side, as well, you've got your game to watch this evening on NBA League Pass.
The Raps play small. Always. Pascal Siakam is their current starting center at closer to 6'7" tall. Teams often end up leaving their big men on the benches for stretches. Without a center on the floor this season, Luguentz Dort has been a far more proficient rebounder than this total would indicate.
In that floor condition, Dort is averaging 5.77 rebounds per 36 minutes. In that small-ball lineup, guard Josh Giddey (8.44 per 36 minutes) is actually the team's leading rebounder. However, Giddey will face playing restrictions moving forward.
If you guessed that Toronto's lack of size hurts their rebounding prowess, you'd be correct. Toronto's 70.5% defensive rebounding percentage is the worst in the NBA. That could lead to a board or two on the offensive end for Lu Dort, as well.
The juice is definitely worth the squeeze behind this prop. The +120 odds pay handsomely considering Dort paces well above this mark in small-ball conditions.
D'Angelo Russell Over 6.5 Assists (+100)
If you're concerned about D'Angelo Russell's shin injury on the second leg of a back-to-back, this bet would be voided if he can't play.
Still, with a full workload in back-to-back games since returning, this prop at even 50% implied probability is tremendous for the Timberwolves' guard.
Russell has really stepped up his facilitation this season. He averages 7.83 assists per 36 minutes in all floor conditions, and with Minnesota basically back to full strength, it's nice to see that he paces well above this mark even with Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards in the fold.
Russell also has posted at least seven dimes in both February games he's returned to. That's come on 12.5 assist opportunities per game. Last night's total even came in just 24 minutes as the Wolves blew out the Kings.
That possibility exists again with the T-Wolves as nine-point road favorites, but there's also a 233.5-point total in this one. Translation -- plenty of points for Russell to set up.
If he plays even in a blowout again, Russell is at least worth the coin flip that he posts around his season pace once more -- a pace well above this total.
