NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 2/24/22: 3 Underdogs That Can Cover After the Break
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls
We've seen two matchups so far between the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls, which ended up in virtually identical scores: 130-118 and 131-117 -- both wins for the Bulls.
We're seeing heavy betting action on the Bulls in this game. Per NBA odds, 79% of bets so far are on Chicago to cover, and that comes with 85% of the money, too.
However, our model is leaning toward Atlanta to cover that 4.0-point spread with a 55.0% probability.
My model, after adjusting for injury news, sees the spread as 2.2 points and considers Atlanta 55.8% likely to cover, as well.
Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves
This game marks the fourth and final matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Like with the last matchup discussed, the favorite has had the better output. The Grizzlies are 2-1 in these matchups.
The betting public also likes Memphis: 82% of spread bets and 87% of spread money is on Memphis.
However (again), our model leans the other way and views the Timberwolves +2.5 as the better spread play.
It's just a one-star lean, but it's worth noting that -- since 2016 -- home underdogs of 2.0 to 3.0 points have covered by an average of 0.7 points.
My model sees the spread as just +0.5 for the Timberwolves, as well.
The Timberwolves covered in 7 of their 10 games leading into the break while obtaining a 7-3 record.
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers
Unsurprisingly, this is yet another matchup where one side is getting a lot of betting love. Unsurprisingly again, that's the 42-17 Golden State Warriors, who have received 83% of spread money so far on 78% of spread bets.
The Warriors have beaten the Portland Trail Blazers by 15 and 10 in two prior meetings (both in Golden State); this marks their third and final matchup of the season.
The spread is 9.5 in Golden State's favor, and the algo here thinks that's a bit high. Portland (+9.5) is rating out as a two-star play with a 58.5% cover probability (with an 11.8% expected return).
Among our 25 most comparable games to this one, historically, teams representing the Blazers have an astounding 76.0% cover rate.
For what it's worth, as well, the Warriors had a spread-adjusted point differential of -6.1 in 10 games leading into the break; the Blazers' rate was +1.4.
