NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 4/19/22: Will All 3 Heavy Home Favorites Prevail?
The NBA playoffs are here! The high-stakes drama in a gauntlet of best-of-seven series returns for another year, and the first round is in-progress.
Betting on the NBA can be tricky, but you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? All odds are from NBA odds, and all ratings are out of five stars.
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
Hawks +7.5 (-114) - 1 Star
Under 219.0 (-110) - 1 Star
There's nowhere to go but up for the Atlanta Hawks following a 24-point loss in Miami. Trae Young was bottled to just eight points.
The injury report might be Atlanta's best chance to keep Game 2 tighter. Bam Adebayo and P.J. Tucker are listed as questionable, and if Miami's top-two defenders end up on the pine, Young's effectiveness should drastically increase.
Adebayo's absence isn't a free pass to the over, though. Of the 20 most similar games to this one in numberFire's database, 15 finished under the projected points total. After all, these are still two bottom-11 teams in terms of pace, and Miami's offensive rating drops 1.75 points with Adebayo off the floor.
This game could be a bit more competitive than Sunday's affair, and it could sail under the total should Miami not shoot 47.3% from three-point range again.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies
Grizzlies ML (-295) - 2 Stars
Under 240.0 (-110) - 1 Star
The Grizzlies' storybook season is in massive danger should they fall behind two games to none heading to Minnesota.
Memphis should play better in Game 2. They shot just 25.9% from three-point territory despite being a 35.3% team from deep in the regular season.
Both of the Grizzlies' big men, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Steven Adams, also fought some foul trouble. That made it hard to exploit Minnesota's second-worst defensive rebounding rate (70.6%) from the regular season.
While numberFire's model expects Memphis ties this series 77.5% of the time, it makes no claim on the Grizzlies' seven-point spread. The implied odds at -295 (74.7%) leave a two-star conviction on the Grizzlies in this spot.
This game carries a massive total, and it's no surprise that, historically, similar teams have struggled to reach it. Of the 20 most similar game environments to this one in numberFire's database, 16 stayed under the total. Amazingly, seven of those contests stayed under this projected total by upwards of 20 points.
New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix ML (-500) - 2 Stars
Phoenix -10.0 (-106) - 1 Star
Betting on the Phoenix Suns -- at least in this series -- is going to require the stomach to pick up pennies in front of a bulldozer.
The dominant, reigning Western Conference champs fought off a tough Pelicans effort to win by 11 on Sunday. They're 10-point favorites for Game 2 at home, but numberFire's model still feels like the Suns' massive -500 odds are a value.
Those odds reflect the Suns' implied chances to win at 83.3%. Our model posts an 85.9% probability. Therefore, there's still a two-unit recommendation on Phoenix to win outright, but the model also gives a one-star green light to their spread at the current -106 odds.
Perhaps as the series shifts to New Orleans, the Pels will be a better bet to steal a game at home. However, with Game 2 still in "The Valley", the Suns' top net rating in the league this season (+7.5) still isn't worth wagering against.
