NBA Conference Finals: How to Bet the Celtics/Heat and Warriors/Mavericks Series
The NBA Finals is down to the final four teams. The conference finals are about to get underway, so we have some series betting odds to break down before they tip off.
Here is how each team looks in the betting market at NBA odds to win the NBA Finals plus their win odds based in numberFire's algorithm.
| NBA Finals Odds | FanDuel Sportsbook Odds | numberFire Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | +130 | 35.5% |
| Boston Celtics | +210 | 38.3% |
| Miami Heat | +430 | 14.8% |
| Dallas Mavericks | +650 | 11.4% |
That puts the best betting value on the Boston Celtics to win it all.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. What about these conference finals? Using 10,000 simulations with numberFire's data, here are the most and least likely results of the upcoming series.
Eastern Conference Finals
Miami Heat (+145) vs. Boston Celtics (-175)
Most Likely Winner: Boston Celtics (62.3%)
numberFire's Most Likely Result: Boston Celtics in 6 (24.2%)
Regular Season Series Results: Boston Celtics 2, Miami Heat 1
The model here is projecting the Celtics to be 60.0% favorites over the Miami Heat, odds that suggest a moneyline of -165. That leaves 37.7% win odds for the Heat, suggesting odds of +165.
| Eastern Conference Final Result |
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds |
numberFire Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Games | +600 | 12.9% |
| 5 Games | +260 | 23.6% |
| 6 Games | +180 | 33.1% |
| 7 Games | +195 | 30.4% |
Based on the value, the market I'm preferring is the exact result.
| Eastern Conference Final Result |
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds |
numberFire Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics 4-1 | +500 | 14.4% |
| Boston Celtics 4-2 | +290 | 24.9% |
| Boston Celtics 4-3 | +500 | 12.8% |
| Boston Celtics 4-0 | +800 | 10.2% |
| Miami Heat 4-0 | +2200 | 2.7% |
| Miami Heat 4-1 | +750 | 9.3% |
| Miami Heat 4-2 | +750 | 8.2% |
| Miami Heat 4-3 | +450 | 17.6% |
The best bets here would be the Celtics to win 4-2 or the Heat to win 4-3.
Western Conference Finals
Dallas Mavericks (+185) vs. Golden State Warriors (-220)
Most Likely Winner: Golden State Warriors (67.56%)
numberFire's Most Likely Result: Golden State Warriors in 5 (21.78%)
Regular Season Series Results: Dallas Mavericks 3, Golden State Warriors 1
| Western Conference Final Result |
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds |
numberFire Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Games | +550 | 12.3% |
| 5 Games | +230 | 27.5% |
| 6 Games | +200 | 30.0% |
| 7 Games | +200 | 30.3% |
The most likely result, again Warriors in 5, is looking like the best bet of these if it's a market you're seeking.
| Western Conference Final Result |
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds |
numberFire Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks 4-0 | +2400 | 3.3% |
| Dallas Mavericks 4-1 | +1300 | 5.7% |
| Dallas Mavericks 4-2 | +600 | 14.2% |
| Dallas Mavericks 4-3 | +750 | 9.3% |
| Golden State Warriors 4-0 | +750 | 9.0% |
| Golden State Warriors 4-1 | +310 | 21.8% |
| Golden State Warriors 4-2 | +420 | 15.8% |
| Golden State Warriors 4-3 | +340 | 21.0% |
Yes, Warriors 4-1 is the most likely result in the simulations, but that's only barely more likely than the Mavericks forcing a Game 7. Either way, it's hard to back the Mavericks from a mathematical standpoint here, yet the best actual value is on the Mavericks in six games, which is even value at +600.
