NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 10/18/22: Will the Favorites Cover on Opening Night?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics Moneyline (-134) - 5 stars
Boston Celtics -2.5 (-110) - 4 stars
The Celtics start the season as numberFire's top-ranked NBA team, and the Philadelphia 76ers are eighth. The nERD (or expected winning percentage) discrepancy (71.2 for Boston) suggests a +6.3-point point differential. For the 76ers (62.6 nERD), the expected point differential is +3.8. That's the 2.5-point spread exactly.
Accounting for home-court advantage, though, the raw data points to Boston.
Last season, Boston was 28-13 at home (68.3%) with a point differential of +7.0, the fifth-best point differential in that split.
Since 2017, home teams favored by 1.5 to 3.5 points in October are 45-26 outright (63.4%), implying moneyline odds of -173. That bests the listed odds of -134.
Also, home teams favored by 1.5 to 3.5 in the opening month are 42-29 against the spread (59.2%). Slight home favorites to open the year have been quite good in recent seasons.
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors Moneyline (-295) - 5 stars
Golden State Warriors -7.0 (-110) - 3 stars
The bad news: Golden State Warriors' top rotation will be limited because their top six are not in shape to play 30-plus minutes.
The good news: they're still favored by 7.0 at home over the Los Angeles Lakers and have a heavy -295 moneyline. That moneyline implies win odds of 74.7%. Our model gives the Warriors an astounding 87.8% win chance. That would mean a moneyline of -720.
Historically speaking, early-season home favorites of 6.0 to 8.0 are 46-14 (76.7%) and 31-29 against the spread (51.7%). That coincides with the preferred action being the moneyline and not the spread here.
Golden State's nERD (66.1) indicates an expected point differential of +4.8. The Lakers rate out at a 59.6 (+2.9). Once again, that puts us more on the outright win rather than the spread.
If a -295 moneyline isn't enough for you, then the model is also showing a two-star interest in the under (216.0). Since 2017, October games are 199-221-5 to the over, indicating a 47.4% over rate.
