NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 10/26/22: Can the Cavaliers Cover?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline (-360) - 4 stars
Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5 (-110) - 2 stars
The Orlando Magic are off to an 0-4 start on the back of a point differential of -8.2 and an expected win rate of just 13.6%.
They're 1-2-1 against the spread, as well, and they list -- among others -- Jalen Suggs as out. With Suggs off the floor this season (and if we remove low-leverage possessions), the Magic have a net rating of -8.9.
The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are 2-1 overall with a league-best +13.0 point differential. They're also 3-0 against the spread.
Although they do list Darius Garland as out, their net rating with him off the floor and without low-leverage possessions factored in is a +12.3 in 129 minutes this season.
These two teams are on opposite ends of the NBA spectrum, and even an 8.5-point spread seems too small.
Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons
Under 230.5 (-110) - 3 stars
Atlanta Hawks Moneyline (-280) - 1 star
Another heavy moneyline is in play for this matchup. The Hawks are rating out as 75.1% likely to get the win, via numberFire's algorithm, and 71.0% likely according to mine.
The Hawks have a neutral net rating of +0.0 to kick off the season when removing garbage possessions. That's been enough for a 2-1 record. The Detroit Pistons, meanwhile, rate out with a -9.0 net rating when accounting for some key health and injuries.
Most importantly, numberFire's model -- and mine -- love the under (230.5).
The Hawks' defensive rating in the sample above is a 109.3, and the Pitsons' offensive rating is just 106.4. My model is projecting 219.1 points. It's a 222.3 total via numberFire's model.
Further, the Hawks have yet to hit an over with this more defensive-driven start to the season, and while the Pistons' overs are 3-1, their average over/under is only 222.1.
Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks
Charlotte Hornets +7.5 (-110) - 3 stars
Charlotte Hornets Moneyline (+260) - 2 stars
Under 224.5 (-110) - 2 stars
This matchup pits two 2-1 teams against each other, each with 2-0 records in their respective home/road splits (i.e. the Knicks are 2-0 at home, and the Hornets are 2-0 on the road).
The Knicks, obviously, have been strong to start the year with Jalen Brunson averaging 32.5 minutes. Their relevant net rating is +13.7 to kick off the year.
Charlotte lists LaMelo Ball as out and Terry Rozier as doubtful. They have not had Ball yet this season, but in 66 non-garbage minutes with Rozier on the bench, the Hornets have a +17.8 net rating. That's paired with a shot quality rating of 0.56, so they're still generating good looks in this sample.
So, basically, both teams are viable even if it seems like the Hornets are going to struggle based on their injuries. The spread is too large as a result.
