NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 11/1/22: A Look at All 4 Games
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn Nets Moneyline (-126) - 1 star
Under 232.0 (110) - 2 stars
There isn't a whole lot in this game to love (or any of the games, frankly), so let's be smart tonight.
The Nets fired head coach Steve Nash after a 2-5 start to the season. I'm not sure that'll fix everything, but it's something. Last night, the Nets picked up a 116-109 win over the Indiana Pacers, who had just beaten the Nets 126-116 two days prior.
The Chicago Bulls are 3-4 and 1-2 on the road to start the year.
Ben Simmons is out for the Nets, and the Bulls are expected to have Zach LaVine tonight (but not tomorrow).
Accounting for those injuries, my model likes the total to be 229.5, giving us some value on the 232.0-point total. numberFire's algorithm likes this game to stay under at a 58.0% clip.
Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat
Miami Heat Moneyline (-108) - 2 stars
Under 225.5 (-110) - 5 stars
The Heat are off to a 2-5 start of their own, and the visiting team -- the Golden State Warriors -- is 3-4. So it's the same as the first game we went over in terms of home and road records.
Our model likes the Heat to get the win 57.7% of the time in this matchup and thus likes their moneyline (-108) but recommends no action on the spread.
The preferred play is the under (225.5). My model sides with the over (232.2), so I'm personally not going there, but I get it.
Last year, the Warriors were bottom-five in over rate (45.2%) but are currently first in over rate (85.7%) this season. That's because the Dubs have allowed their opponent to go over their implied total in all seven games this season.
The Heat have gone over their own total in just three of seven games and fall short by an average of 4.0 points.
Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline (-158) - Brandon's Pick
Oklahoma City Thunder -3.0 (-114) - Brandon's Pick
It's hard to get excited about this matchup between the 1-6 Magic and the 3-3 Oklahoma City Thunder.
Oklahoma City will be without Josh Giddey; Orlando is without Cole Anthony and lists Jalen Suggs as questionable.
Despite a poor record and a subpar cover rate (40.0%), the Magic have played 3.3 points per game better than the spread suggested they should've. The Thunder have an 83.3% cover rate and have outperformed the spread by an average of 9.6 points.
My model, accounting for injuries and absences, likes the OKC side and thinks they should be favored by 6.0.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns Moneyline (-168) - 5 stars
Phoenix Suns -3.5 (-114) - 3 stars
The best game of the night for betting is the 4-3 Minnesota Timberwolves at the 5-1 Phoenix Suns.
numberFire's algorithm is giving the Suns a 77.9% chance to win. My model actually has it around there, too, which might sound aggressive.
That being said, the Suns even with Deandre Ayton off the floor have a net rating of +13.6 this season when removing low-leverage possessions. The Timberwolves' relevant splits this year put them at just a +0.9 net rating.
Even smoothing out those samples suggests a heavy spread is in order for the Suns, who are 4-0 at home and have covered in four of six games to start the season.
