NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 11/9/22: 3 Totals That Look Too High
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors
Under 224.5 (-112)
The primary injury to note in this matchup is on the Toronto Raptors' side with Pascal Siakam out.
With Siakam off the floor this season, the Raptors have a net rating of -3.0 and an offensive rating of 108.9. That's around 98% of the NBA average. Their defensive rating (111.9) in that split is about average, too, so there's no reason to anticipate a defensive lapse on their end.
For the Houston Rockets, their relevant offensive rating is a 109.0, so these are two are underperforming offenses that don't play particularly fast when combined (Houston is 8th in pace but Toronto is 22nd).
My model views the over/under to be 220.5; numberFire projects a total of 219.3 points, as well.
New Orleans Pelicans at Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls +2.0 (-110)
Chicago Bulls Moneyline (+110)
Under 232.5 (-110)
numberFire's model likes the Bulls a good bit. They're 12th in our power rankings despite a 6-6 record. Chicago is also 4-2 at home. The New Orleans Pelicans are sixth in our power rankings with a 5-5 record; they're 3-4 on the road.
numberFire's algorithm thinks the Bulls cover with a 64.8% probability, making Chicago +2.0 a three-star suggestion.
My model, accounting for injuries and removing garbage-time possessions, views this as a pick'em, so the points are nice to see.
Also in play is the under (232.5). numberFire's algorithm anticipates a total of 221.5 points. Mine has it at 228.5, but both are shy of the total.
The Pelicans have been super over-friendly (80.0% over rate); however, the Bulls have a 41.7% over rate and play games about 6.0 points shy of the league average total. They also have let opponents surpass their implied team total in just a third of their games (falling short by an average of 3.7 points). Chicago's style is pointing to an under recommendation.
Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Clippers -3.0 (-110)
Under 219.5 (-110)
I hate always being on unders, but that's where the value is tonight in these games.
When looking at relevant possession for the Clippers (i.e. when Kawhi Leonard is off but Paul George is active), their offensive rating is awful: 104.6. That's about 93% of the NBA average on a per-possession basis.
For the Los Angeles Lakers, in games with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook active, their offensive rating isn't much better: 107.3.
Both have average-ish defenses in this split, and the main path to an over is the Lakers' league-high pace.
The Clips (20th) will slow it down when it's in their hands, though. They've gone over their own implied team total in just 1 of 11 games, and the rate for the Lakers is 40.0%. Both often fail to live up to the offensive hype.
