3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 11/10/22

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Joel Embiid Over 28.5 Points (-120)

Joel Embiid's averaging 28.0 points per game across 34.8 minutes, but his workload is partially dependent on the status of James Harden.

Harden is out for tonight, and without Harden on the floor this season, Embiid has had a 35.4% usage rate and has scored 0.79 points per minute, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ.

numberFire's model is projecting Embiid for 29.4 points in 36.85 minutes. At that minutes projection and his current scoring rate without Harden, he'd score 29.1 points.

The Atlanta Hawks are just an average defense by defensive rating, and they're below average in points per game allowed to centers, so Embiid could see an efficiency uptick in this spot.

Terry Rozier Under 22.5 Points (-125)

The Charlotte Hornets are shorthanded on Thursday. They're still without LaMelo Ball but also list Gordon Hayward and Cody Martin as out.

Without them on the floor, Terry Rozier's usage rate is a hefty 28.7%, but he averages only 0.59 points per minute. That points-per-minute rate is what's obviously in question here.

At Rozier's projected minutes (32.73), that works out to only 19.3 points, and numberFire's model is actually projecting only 17.5 points for Rozier early in the day.

At the higher projection (19.3) of the two, we should consider Rozier around 75.0% likely to stay under this mark against the top-12 defense of the Miami Heat.

Kyle Kuzma Under 1.5 Three-Point Makes (+116)

Kyle Kuzma has averaged 1.9 makes on 5.7 attempts this season from beyond the arc and is shooting 33.3% from deep. He's a career 33.9% shooter, so that's about on par with expectation.

But the volume might be harder to find tonight against the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas has allowed just 28.5 three-point attempts per game, a league-low by a full attempt and around 5.5 shy of the NBA average.

Kuzma is projected for 1.6 threes by numberFire's model, and with +116 odds on the under, we can back the under and hope that he returns a sixth game this season with zero or one treys.