FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Wednesday 12/14/22

Since it's much simpler to predict than baseball or football, daily fantasy basketball would get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right?

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer daily, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.

The Slate and Key Injuries

The Warriors don't like playing basketball these days, so even despite a three-quarter blowout last night, expect them to explode today's injury report later this afternoon.

As for the news we have this morning, it starts with Atlanta. Trae Young (back) is questionable to miss a second straight for the Hawks as they visit Orlando.

Washington is up in the air, too. They're traveling to Denver but potentially will be without some combination of Kristaps Porzingis (back), Bradley Beal (hamstring), and Monte Morris (groin). Those who suit up should be value plays.

The Miami Heat will rest Jimmy Butler (knee) with a weaker foe on deck as they visit Oklahoma City. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (ankle) won't play for the Thunder.

Jalen Brunson (foot) popped up as questionable for the Knicks tonight. They're facing the Bulls, who may be down Ayo Dosunmu (pelvis).

The Raptors will be missing OG Anunoby (hip) once again on Wednesday. They're hosting the Sacramento Kings on the second leg of Sacramento's back-to-back.

D'Angelo Russell (knee) was a surprise addition to Minnesota's injury report on Wednesday. Backup point guard Jordan McLaughlin (calf) is already out. They're facing a Clippers team that's surprisingly at full strength.

The Spurs have Zach Collins (ankle) listed as doubtful for Wednesday's contest against Portland. Romeo Langford (ankle) shares that status. San Antonio also has Josh Richardson (hand) and Keita Bates-Diop (foot) listed as questionable.

The aforementioned Golden State squad is facing Indiana, who are likely down Aaron Nesmith (shoulder) after he left Monday's game and didn't return.

Finally, Maxi Kleber (knee) is listed as questionable for the Mavericks. They're hosting Cleveland, who is back to full strength.

Guards

On a 10-game slate, I don't mind taking Luka Doncic ($12,500) off the menu at his salary.

Doncic hasn't eclipsed 62 FanDuel points in five straight, and the Cavs are just as slow-footed (28th in pace) as Dallas (29th). That 215.5-point game total just doesn't appear to leave slate-busting upside for Luka without a random amount of blocks or steals.

I'd love to get Trae Young ($10,000) back at lower popularity due to his questionable tag. Young's 41.2% usage rate (and 51.4 FanDuel points per 36 minutes) is much better at this salary. It's a bit concerning he's still on the injury report, though.

I'll likely spend elsewhere if Stephen Curry ($9,900) and Young both sit Wednesday. I rolled the dice on Curry yesterday at this same below-median salary, but it was his team's performance that led to a three-quarter blowout. The best-case scenario for him would be to play and have Klay Thompson ($7,300) sit on the back-to-back.

Our projections love Curry's teammate, Jordan Poole ($6,700). Poole likely plays no matter what on Wednesday, and his 32.2% usage rate since Andrew Wiggins exited the lineup is a team-best mark.

Fred VanVleet ($7,800) is another guy gleaming through the projections with Anunoby still out for Toronto. VanVleet hasn't turned his 1.6 percentage-point bump in usage rate without OG into production yet this season, but that's still a notable increase in shot volume.

Our projections also fancy Tre Jones ($6,600), Bruce Brown Jr. ($5,600), Bennedict Mathurin ($5,100), and Markelle Fultz ($4,600).

Wings

Small forward is deeper than it is star-studded on this slate.

The Clippers are still limiting Kawhi Leonard ($7,000) despite his mammoth showing Monday in just 29 minutes, so Paul George ($8,900) is still interesting with a salary decrease entering this matchup.

Injury beneficiaries headline the rest of the upper mid-range. That's led by Kyle Kuzma ($8,300), who could be the last man standing with Porzingis and Beal both very questionable to play in Denver. I'm just worried the Wiz get blown off the floor by the Nuggets without their key pieces.

Tyler Herro ($7,700) -- in a pristine matchup with OKC -- makes a ton of sense with a team-best 28.6% usage rate with Jimmy Butler off the floor, and Scottie Barnes ($7,100) is projecting well given the 1.0 percentage-point increase in usage rate he's seen with Anunoby off the court.

The Heat and Raptors also deliver two of the better value options of the day. Gary Trent Jr. ($5,800) logged a whopping 43 minutes in Anunoby's place on Sunday, and Caleb Martin ($5,000) has recorded at least 36 minutes in three straight games.

Others projected well by our model as of now include Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,000), Kyle Anderson ($5,900), Max Strus ($4,900), Donte DiVincenzo ($4,800), and Jonathan Kuminga ($4,400). The last two are especially interesting given they'll see boosts if more Golden State starters are ruled out.

Bigs

With nowhere else to shove salary, Nikola Jokic ($11,800) is tremendously appealing against a Wizards squad likely missing Porzingis.

Jokic has continued to cruise in Michael Porter's absence, posting 59.7 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with MPJ off the floor this year. He's not even really a risk in the event of a blowout given he posted 51.6 FanDuel points per game in his two sub-30-minute showings this past month. He does so much that if Denver gets ahead, he's probably the primary cause.

In that same vein, Pascal Siakam ($10,400) is a high-floor option against a Kings squad that's bottom-10 in paint points per game allowed (52.3). Siakam has seen a 1.9 percentage-point uptick in usage without Anunoby this year.

Bam Adebayo ($9,000) also leads his team in FanDuel points per 36 minutes (42.9) in his current floor condition without Butler, and Domantas Sabonis ($8,800) is projecting a better value score in our model than any of these guys. This is by far the best positional group to spend on for today's slate.

The opportunity cost of using Jokic is one of the keenest injury spots of the day. Charles Bassey ($5,100) and Gorgui Dieng ($3,800) are both center-only eligible in the Spurs' frontcourt that'll likely be without Zach Collins. I'm inclined to fade them for Jokic given Gregg Popovich's unusual rotation habits.

The theme of the day has been Toronto, so why stop in terms of value to pair these guys with? Chris Boucher ($4,900) logged 28 minutes on Sunday, and he -- plus the other four Raptors I mentioned -- are the only ones who saw above 18 minutes. The rotation is playoff-level thin for Nick Nurse at the present.

Clint Capela ($6,200), PJ Washington ($5,900), Mitchell Robinson ($5,800), and Isaiah Stewart ($5,600) are also projecting well in numberFire's model.