NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 12/21/22: 3 Games That Should Go Over
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers
Over 223.5 (-110)
Philadelphia 76ers -11.5 (-110)
The Sixers have figured things out with Tyrese Maxey out.
In games without Maxey but with James Harden and Joel Embiid, the 76ers are 5-1 and hold a net rating of +12.0.
The Detroit Pistons' splits are rough no matter what you look at. After all, their record is just 8-25 overall (including 4-13 on the road), and in games without Cade Cunningham, their net rating is -11.6 -- leading to a 3-9 record without Cunningham.
Using relevant splits for these teams, my model thinks that the 76ers should romp harder than even the 11.5-point spread suggests.
But better than that even is the over. The 76ers are pitting their 119.8 offensive rating (without Maxey) against a 119.9 defensive rating. They should score with ease tonight in a blowout win, according to the data.
Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks
New York Knicks -1.5 (-110)
Over 217.5 (-110)
Despite a back-to-back situation for the Knicks, they are still in a solid spot because they hosted the Golden State Warriors last night and beat them 132-94. Their starters were able to rest through the fourth quarter (aside from Quentin Grimes playing six minutes).
The Toronto Raptors have lost six straight games but are only 1.5-point underdogs. Interestingly, the Raptors are 13-18 overall with a 3-12 road record (including a 35.7% cover rate in those road games).
In fairness to them, they are the unluckiest road team in the NBA by record but should still be only around 6-9 in those 15 road games anyway if all games played true to the underlying point differentials.
We're looking at (based on health) relevant net ratings of +5.1 for New York and -3.7 for the reeling Raptors.
My model is projecting a total of 224.8, as well.
Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets
Over 223.0 (-110)
How about three overs? It's not just a bit. It's just what makes sense to target tonight when we navigate around the injury report and stay away from key questionable tags until we get more information throughout the day about those players.
The relevant offensive ratings for this matchup won't make the over look very appealing, but wait, there's more!
The Orlando Magic, with Wendell Carter Jr. (out), Jalen Suggs (out), and Franz Wagner (questionable) off the floor, have an offensive rating of 111.8, but their defensive rating is 116.4.
On the season, Orlando has gone over their own implied team total by an average of 5.5 points per game (third-highest in the NBA) and in 65.6% of their games (also third-highest).
As for the Houston Rockets, their offensive rating for this game is 110.5 with a defensive rating of 117.9. They also have a tendency to outperform their own total. They've done it by 2.5 points, on average, and in 53.3% of their games.
To clarify, we're looking at two weak defenses and two subpar (but not dreadful) offenses that often outplay expectations. My model is projecting 228.1 points in this game.
