NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 12/28/22: 3 Totals That Are Too High
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Phoenix Suns at Washington Wizards
Under 223.0 (-110)
Washington Wizards +2.5 (-110)
Both sides in this game will likely be without three-time All-Star shooting guards. For the Phoenix Suns, Devin Booker is dealing with a groin injury. For the home team, Bradley Beal injured his left hamstring last night -- not the same hamstring that kept him out for six games.
So, yes, Washington played last night, but so did Phoenix. Washington hosted the Philadelphia 76ers and won 116-111. Phoenix was in Memphis to play the Memphis Grizzlies, a game they won 125-108. They now travel to the nation's capital for a 7:00 p.m. Eastern tip-off.
In games with zero rest for either side since the start of last season, the over is 35-38 (47.9%). In such games as late as December as fatigue starts to grow, the over is 16-20. I know it's a small sample, but it helps push us toward the under when factoring in the injuries.
Because neither Phoenix without Booker nor Washington without Beal have a better-than-average offensive rating.
Booker also leads to a big impact on the Suns' net rating, one that doesn't seem to be quite factored in due to the team name value discrepancy here.
On December 20th, Washington beat Phoenix 113-110 in Phoenix in a game that Beal played in (but Kristaps Porzingis missed). Booker missed that game, as well.
Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls
Under 232.0 (-110)
Chicago Bulls +4.5 (-110)
Injury news for this one isn't lengthy but is noteworthy, particularly for the Milwaukee Bucks, who are again without Khris Middleton.
In games with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday but without Middleton, Milwaukee is 13-6 with a +4.3 net rating. However, they have not been a good road team this season. Their road record is 8-8 but comes with a point differential of -5.4, making them the second-luckiest road team in the league.
In road games, Milwaukee has a lowly 33.3% over rate, primarily due to an offense that doesn't travel well. They fall short of their implied team total by a league-worst 6.3 points and have beaten their team total in just 4 of 16 road games.
The Bulls, at home, are only 7-8 themselves and bring a 33.3% over rate to the table (with a 40.0% over rate on their implied team total).
Accounting for health, my model thinks this total should be 225.5. numberFire's model likes this under as a three-star bet and the Bulls to cover as a two-star play.
Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans
Under 234.0 (-110)
New Orleans Pelicans -6.0 (-110)
New Orleans Pelicans Moneyline (-250)
Yet another under? Why not? That's where the value is tonight.
The Minnesota Timberwolves, without Karl-Anthony Towns but with Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert, are 3-7 with a net rating of -5.5 and an offensive rating of just 110.9.
The New Orleans Pelicans are still without Brandon Ingram. In games without him but with Zion Williamson and C.J. McCollum, New Orleans has now mustered a +3.0 net rating with a solid 114.1 offensive rating.
This combination has the projected total (in my model) at 226.5 points with New Orleans comfortably projected to cover.
numberFire's model likes the Pelicans' moneyline the most (a three-star suggestion) with the under a two-star play and the Pelicans -6.0 as a one-star lean.
