NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 1/10/23: How to Bet Donovan Mitchell's Return to Utah
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors
Under 230.5 (-110)
Despite a smaller slate, a lot of games are marred with questionable tags, and I'll be focusing on games without them because we still have a good amount of options.
In this matchup, the Charlotte Hornets are without Kelly Oubre and are listing Gordon Hayward as doubtful. The Toronto Raptors are largely healthy.
Given that, the relevant numbers here are pointing to the under.
numberFire's model likes this game to score a total of 225.3 points. Mine has the game total at 227.8 -- so a bit higher.
But these two teams hold roughly average offensive and defensive ratings, and Toronto likes to slow things down, thus combating the pace for the Hornets.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz +3.0 (-110)
Utah Jazz Moneyline (+132)
Over 227.0 (-110)
We get a revenge game spot for Donovan Mitchell in Utah against the Jazz.
The first time around in this matchup (December 19th) between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Jazz, the Cavaliers won 122-99 in Cleveland. Mitchell scored 23 points.
But Cleveland is a dominant team at home and is weaker on the road. They're 8-11 overall outside of Cleveland and have a point differential of +1.3 but a cover rate of 35.3%. Utah, at home, is 12-7 with a point differential of +4.9 and a 52.9% cover rate.
Accounting for health on both sides, my model thinks the Jazz cover, as does numberFire's. numberFire's algorithm views Utah +3.0 as a two-star play and their moneyline as a three-star play.
I also see value in the over. Utah tends to give up a lot of points in home matchups and has allowed opponents to put up more than their implied total in 68.4% of their games so far.
Orlando Magic at Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers -7.5 (-110)
You can't really look at the Blazers without accounting for whether or not Damian Lillard played, and with him active, they should be able to cover against the reeling Orlando Magic, who are playing their third straight road game and have two more yet to go before returning home.
Orlando's just 5-14 on the road with a -6.9 opponent-adjusted net rating, ranking them fifth-worst among all road teams. Despite some health, they still project to be a full tier below Portland, who has done well at home overall.
Portland, at home, has a 9-6 record but a 61.5% cover rate and a spread-adjusted point differential of +4.7. Specifically, in home games with Lillard, Portland is 8-4 with an adjusted net rating of +3.9 and a spread-adjusted point differential of +5.5.
