NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 1/18/23: Backing 3 Home Favorites That Should Earn Victories
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks
Under 234.0 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (-132)
The 24-21 Mavericks are hosting the 22-22 Atlanta Hawks in a matchup of two teams with inverse records in their past five games.
Atlanta is 4-1 in their past five with wins over the Los Angeles Clippers, Indiana Pacers, Toronto Raptors, and Miami Heat. Their lone loss was to the Milwaukee Bucks in that span.
The Mavericks are in the headlines due to Luka Doncic's performances -- and his lack of help (or at least perceived lack of help) -- but are 1-4 in their past five games with losses to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Clippers, and Portland Trail Blazers (twice). They beat the Los Angeles Lakers in that span in double overtime.
Lost in this, though, is that the Mavericks were in the midst of a five-game road trip. They now return home to the American Airlines Center, where they are 16-6 overall, and have had two days of rest.
Dallas is the second-slowest team by possessions per game in home games but hold a +6.6 adjusted net rating in that split.
Atlanta is about an average road team (10-13 overall) but has just a 40.9% cover rate and a -1.8 adjusted net rating.
Accounting for health on both sides, my model likes the slow pace to play part in the under.
numberFire's model rates that as a three-star play out of five (i.e. a three-unit recommendation). The numberFire algorithm also has the Mavs' moneyline as a four-star play.
Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline (-176)
Under 239.5 (-110)
Once again, in this game, we have a 1-4 team and a 4-1 team over each side's past five contests.
The Thunder are the squad with better recent fortunes, including three straight road wins before returning home (wins over the Philadelphia 76ers, Chicago Bulls, and Brooklyn Nets).
The Pacers' skid has their record at 23-22 on the full year, and they're 8-13 on the road with an adjusted net rating of -4.6 in road games.
Speaking of inverses, the Thunder's adjusted net rating at home is +4.6. In home matchups, they own a 63.6% home cover rate.
More important than home/road splits, the Pacers are without Tyrese Haliburton. Their offensive rating falls by 6.9 points per 100 possessions without him on the floor.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies Moneyline (-280)
Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 (-110)
We probably won't see a superstar showdown between Ja Morant and Donovan Mitchell tonight because Mitchell is doubtful. So, instead of a close game, we have a 7.5-point spread.
That might not be large enough based on how the Grizzlies have played in games with Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. together. In that split, they're 7-2 overall (6-3 against the spread) with a non-garbage net rating of +13.0. That's sick.
In four games for the Cleveland Cavaliers without Mitchell but with Darius Garland active, the Cavaliers are 1-3 with a -5.3 point differential (-8.4 adjusted point differential). They're also 1-3 against the spread.
