NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 1/24/23: How Many Points Will We Get in Indiana?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers
Under 234.5 (-110)
The under is in play for this Central division matchup between the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers, and it has a lot to do with the health of Tyrese Haliburton, who is out for the Pacers.
The Pacers' offensive rating dips by 7.6 points when Haliburton goes off the floor compared to what it is with him. Their defense improves by 3.2 points, so that's two under-friendly shifts from their offense and their defense.
In eight contests without Haliburton, Indiana games are 5-3 to the under.
The Bulls' relevant offensive and defensive ratings are basically in line with the NBA average, so that doesn't do enough to overcome the Pacers' weak offense without Haliburton.
numberFire's model thinks this game scores 233.6. I have it much lower at 228.3.
Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (-295)
Dallas Mavericks -7.0 (-112)
The visiting Washington Wizards are without Kristaps Porzingis, which is partially offset by the Mavericks' absence of Christian Wood -- but not quite.
The on/off differential for Porzingis is +5.6 for Washington; that number for the Mavericks with and without Wood is just +1.0.
Washington, in games with Bradley Beal but without Porzingis on the floor, has a worrisome -7.6 net rating and a 109.6 offensive rating.
Dallas' relevant net rating in this game is +5.1 with an offensive rating sitting at 119.9.
I prefer to get the moneyline but can also justify the spread, which I have as Mavericks -10.3.
Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns Moneyline (-270)
Phoenix Suns -6.5 (-110)
It's telling that the Suns are favored by 6.5 points even with Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton (among others) out.
The Charlotte Hornets have not graced us with an official injury report, but we know LaMelo Ball's status is unclear after he did not play last night during the team's 120-102 loss to the Utah Jazz. The team now heads to Phoenix, who had last night off.
The Hornets haven't been particularly good even with Ball (plus Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward active) anyway. In this eight-game split, they are 2-6 with a point differential of -6.3 and an opponent-adjusted point differential of -10.2.
Notably, the Suns are receiving 65% of spread bets but 74% of spread money.
