NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 1/25/23: Rolling With Smart Money on the Thunder
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Atlanta Hawks at Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder +2.0 (-114)
Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline (+108)
I'm often in on the Thunder, and I'm going back there tonight when they host the Atlanta Hawks.
Atlanta is 11-14 on the road with a 41.7% cover rate and an opponent-adjusted net rating of -2.0. Accounting for health, my model has their net rating for this game at -6.0.
The Thunder are 14-9 at home with a 65.2% cover rate, beating the spread by an average of 6.4 points. That converts to an opponent-adjusted net rating of +4.8 in home games.
numberFire's model likes the Thunder to cover 66.0% of the time and to win outright 65.8% of the time.
Further, 54% of spread bets are on OKC -- but that's tied to 62% of the money.
Toronto Raptors at Sacramento Kings
Sacramento Kings Moneyline (-158)
Sacramento Kings -3.0 (-110)
Turmoil might be brewing within the Toronto Raptors' locker room. The squad is only 21-27 on the year -- and just 6-15 on the road.
News has emerged that OG Anunoby wants out of Toronto, and tonight may not lead to a turnaround in fortune.
Toronto is traveling to face the Kings, a 27-19 overall team that is 16-10 at home.
In terms of home/road spread-adjusted point differentials, the Kings are at +3.5 with the Raptors at -2.4. That's a similar net rating for the Kings in games with both De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis (+3.4).
numberFire's algorithm likes the Kings' moneyline as a two-star play with a one-star lean on the spread.
And we're seeing betting trends on the Kings: 73% of the spread money is coming from 66% of the spread bets.
Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
Under 244.5 (-110)
This is quite the over/under, and while it won't be fun to root for an under, that's what the math says we should be targeting as both historical trends and team efficiency numbers point to the under.
Since 2017, the under is 54.1% (66-56-0) in games with totals of at least 240.0 points. And in games with totals of at least 244.0, the under is 15-9-0 (62.5%).
As for the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors, I have each of their relevant offensive ratings at 116.8 or higher (and 119.4 in the case of the Grizzlies).
That being said, both defenses are plus units, and the rising total has gotten too high, according to the historical precedent and the recent data for each side here.
