NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 1/31/23: What Stands Out on a Small Slate?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Los Angeles Lakers at New York Knicks
New York Knicks -2.0 (-110)
The Los Angeles Lakers played last night and lost by 17 to the Brooklyn Nets in a game without both LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Though there's no official injury report for the Lakers as of 12:30 p.m. Eastern, we have learned that James will be active tonight. The team's net rating even in games with James, Davis, and Russell Westbrook is -1.2 once removing low-leverage possessions.
This line has bounced around but is currently at 2.0 in the favor of the Knicks, who are without Mitchell Robinson.
Accounting for injuries (and whether James plays or not), my model is seeing value on the Knicks to cover at home. The model at numberFire is loving the Knicks, too. They're a full five-star recommendation to cover.
Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks
Under 244.0 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks -11.0 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline (-590)
My model views this total as wildly high once accounting for injuries and rotations for both the Charlotte Hornets and the Milwaukee Bucks.
Charlotte is without both Kelly Oubre and Cody Martin, and in games even with LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Gordon Hayward but without those two on the floor, the Hornets' offensive rating is only 107.6. Their defensive rating is good, too, at 108.0. Those are both under-friendly trends.
The sample there is 694 possessions, so it's still fairly small but definitely past a stabilization point of trustworthiness.
In nine games with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton, the Bucks are 7-2 with an offensive rating of 121.8 but with a defensive rating of 112.9. That gives us two relevant defensive ratings that are under-friendly in this matchup.
The double-digit spread is never something I love to see, but there's still value on it, according to the data. Pairing the Bucks' moneyline with other angles you're interested in tonight also seems to make a lot of sense.
