NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 2/7/23: Targeting Some Narrow Spreads
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
New York Knicks at Orlando Magic
New York Knicks Moneyline (-118)
New York Knicks -1.5 (-108)
The Knicks are going to be without Mitchell Robinson, and they list RJ Barrett as questionable for this game against the Orlando Magic, but they still have Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson.
In games with those two but with Robinson and Barrett off the floor, the team has a net rating of +10.0 across 1,069 possessions -- a large sample.
The Magic hold a relevant net rating here of -2.0 when accounting for key pieces, so it doesn't take too much convincing from there.
But the Knicks are one of four teams with a positive point differential (+1.3) on the road, and they're 15-11 overall away from Madison Square Garden.
Orlando is bottom six in home point differential (-1.0).
Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans -1.0 (-108)
The memes about how average the Atlanta Hawks are is true, and their relevant net rating for this game is +0.6 (before accounting for the fact that they're on the road).
The Pelicans' net rating across possessions without Zion Williamson but in games with C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram is -0.1. Straight up, it makes sense that the line is so tight.
Adjusting for home/road splits, my model has the Pelicans favored by 3.4.
numberFire's algorithm likes the Pelicans' spread as a three-star play. You can also bet their moneyline at -112 and avoid the push potential of a one-point game.
Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies
Under 234.0 (-110)
Some news hit at 1:30 p.m. Eastern that DeMar DeRozan is questionable for tonight's game against the Memphis Grizzlies. My model liked the under here even with DeRozan active, and this is helping.
The Chicago Bulls' offensive rating is just 112.2 in games with Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic but with DeRozan off the floor. Memphis' relevant defensive rating for this game is also only 112.2.
numberFire's model also has the under as a three-star play.
