NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 3/8/23: Some Totals and an Underdog
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards +4.0 (-110)
The Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards are both pretty average teams both by record (32-33 and 31-34, respectively) and by numberFire's power rankings (16th and 14th, respectively), yet we're seeing the home side in his matchup getting four points due to a back-to-back situation.
Last night, the Wizards beat the Detroit Pistons 119-117 on the road before traveling back for tonight's game. The Hawks were recently in Miami for a two-game road-trip over the weekend (both were losses).
We could get some injury news here on the Wizards' side of things, but if not, then the home side is looking good as an underdog.
My model has the Wizards actually favored by a point, and numberFire's model likes their spread as a two-star play out of five.
Simply put, the Hawks are not a daunting team at all, and that doesn't change on the road where they've got just a 42.2% cover rate.
Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets
Over 225.5 (-110)
The spread here is pretty large in favor of the Denver Nuggets (-9.0) over the visiting Chicago Bulls.
That's not a big shock, as Denver is phenomenal at home (30-4 with a league-best +11.1 adjusted net rating). But where I'm looking, instead, is the over at just 225.5.
Home games for the Nuggets have resulted in an average of 230.9 points this season; road games for Chicago are at 226.2. Though there's more to it than that, of course, those are nice numbers to see.
Accounting for health here, we're getting two average defenses and an average offense for the Bulls paired with an elite offense for Denver (a 122.4 expected net rating based on health).
In total, my model sees this one getting past 230.0, and numberFire's model views the over as a two-star play, as well.
Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Clippers
Under 230.0 (-110)
Los Angeles Clippers Moneyline (-146)
The inverse is the recommendation in this game -- as well as an interest in the Clippers' moneyline.
The relevant samples for this game have the Clippers showing with a +4.4 net rating (before accounting for things like rest and home-court advantage).
For the Toronto Raptors, that mark is just +0.3.
Similar to the game we just discussed, we have a mostly average team by offensive and defensive rating (Toronto) and a team that is average defensively and a slight plus offensively (Los Angeles) once accounting for health.
In this case, that's not nearly enough for an over, once accounting for the expected pace (both teams are in the bottom half of the league by possessions per game).
Additionally, an in-game edge belongs to the Clippers, whose moneyline is a one-star suggestion by numberFire. The under (a full-on five-star suggestion by numberFire's model) is also the angle. My model has the under a little less of a smash but anticipates 227.9 points.
