NBA Betting Guide for Friday 3/24/23: Should We Expect Scoring in Sacramento?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies
Under 233.5 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies Moneyline (-950)
I'll start with the moneyline here because it's an easy one. Yes, it's -950 odds, but numberFire's model has the Grizzlies' win probability at 92.1%, which is good enough to make the -950 bet a two-star wager. My model has Memphis 93.1% likely to win, too.
Memphis has won four straight games, and the Houston Rockets have lost three straight. Houston currently holds the conference's worst record and does have some breathing room to remain in the bottom three but isn't doing much to convince us that they'll pull an upset on Friday.
Based on the betting odds, what's more realistic for us to want to target (not that the moneyline should be brushed aside) is the total. My model likes the under for this game, primarily due to the Rockets' weak scoring tendencies with their current rotation.
Their offensive rating is 111.9 once accounting for their active roster right now, and that's tough to see up against an elite defense (Memphis' defensive rating is 108.5).
My model has the total at 229.2.
Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz +9.0 (-110)
The Jazz have an outside shot at the playoffs still (14.8%, according to numberFire's model). They're currently the 12 seed in the West, and they're going to be without Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson for tonight's game against the Milwaukee Bucks, who are without Khris Middleton.
Milwaukee holds the 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and is likely to keep pace over the 2-seeded Boston Celtics (2.5 games back) by scoring a win tonight. The Bucks are 22-13 on the road this year albeit with just a +0.4 point differential that expands only to +1.3 once adjusting for opponents faced. They're the luckiest road team in the league.
Once boiling down this game to the active lineups and accounting for things like rest and home-court advantage, my model thinks the spread should be 6.0 and not 9.0.
numberFire's algorithm also likes the Jazz to cover (70.1% likely) and rates it as a four-star play, too. Utah isn't quite done yet, and while they are likely to lose tonight, the data says they should keep it closer than a blowout.
Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings
Over 239.0 (-110)
The Sacramento Kings lead the Phoenix Suns by a full five games in the Pacific Division.
The Kings and Suns have each lost two straight and are 6-4 and 5-5 in their past 10, respectively, but this blurb isn't about the outright winner anyway.
Since the All-Star break, Sacramento has averaged 122.7 points in 14 non-overtime games while allowing 119.9 to opponents for a total of 242.6 points per game and an over rate of 69.2%.
As for the Suns, their games have been lower scoring (230.5 total points) -- but that comes with a 66.7% over rate. Of note, they've allowed 58.3% of their opponents to surpass their implied total in this span, and that number on the full season is 56.9%.
I'm also fine with betting the Kings themselves to get over 121.5 (-105).
My model projects 243.3 points in this game. numberFire's algorithm also likes the over as a one-star play.
