NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 4/5/23: Who Can Clinch Their Playoff Seed?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline (-270)
With a win tonight, the Bucks will clinch the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and even if they don't get it done tonight, they're likely to do so by the end of the regular season. They're 97.0% likely to be the 1 seed, per numberFire's simulations.
The Chicago Bulls have clinched a play-in berth but cannot get up to the 6 seed, so they're destined for the play-in. They likely want to keep morale up and build up to the play-in, yet their motivation can't really match up with Milwaukee's.
Plus, the data is backing the Bucks to cover and to win. And that's just as important.
My model, accounting for current rotations, rest, home court, and more, thinks the Bucks should be favored by 9.3 points in this matchup.
numberFire's algorithm likes the Bucks' spread and moneyline as one-star (i.e. one-unit) recommendations.
Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics -4.0 (-110)
Boston Celtics Moneyline (-174)
With distance over the Philadelphia 76ers (by two games despite a loss to them last night) but while trailing the Bucks (also by two games), the Celtics' odds to be the 2 seed are 96.6%, via numberFire's simulations. They hold the tiebreaker over the 76ers, though, so their magic number for the 2 seed is one.
The Toronto Raptors are in the same boat as the Bulls, as both are locked into the 7 to 10 seed range in the Eastern Conference and are, therefore, set for the play-in.
The narratives are nice, of course, but the numbers once again like the favorite.
My model thinks the spread should be 6.5 instead of 4.0; numberFire's model likes the Celtics to cover with a 61.6% probability and to win outright 79.0% of the time.
Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans
Memphis Grizzlies +5.5 (-112)
The Grizzlies are 87.2% likely to be the 2 seed in the Western Conference. They are currently on the wrong side of the tie-breaker with the Sacramento Kings, so Memphis needs to be locked in to secure that spot.
Despite that, the New Orleans Pelicans are favored by 5.5 points in this game, which features both sides on a back-to-back. Memphis just beat the Portland Trail Blazers by 10 at home, and the Pelicans lost 121-103 to the Kings in New Orleans.
We'll have to monitor all injury reports because so many teams are playing a second night in a row, but the Grizzlies are pretty solid without key pieces, so we'd have to see a massive injury list to pivot fully off of them as sizable underdogs. With the playoff implications, it seems somewhat unlikely that they punt this game away.
My model and numberFire's model respect the Pelicans well enough, but getting 5.5 points for the Grizzlies is quite enticing. numberFire's model views the Grizzlies as 67.5% likely to cover.
