NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 4/18/23: Looking at Shot Quality to Project Game 2 Results
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
Over 230.5 (-110)
This matchup has the second-highest pace of the playoffs thus far, and we should expect a better offensive effort from Atlanta throughout the series.
The Hawks had an effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) of just 37.5% on wide-open shots in Game 1. They missed a ton of bunnies, including the normally efficient Trae Young, who was 2-for-10 on looks considered open.
These were two of the top-seven squads in making open shots in the regular season, and both shot at least 43.0% in that span. In addition to the Hawks' dismal mark (30.0%), the Celtics also underperformed at 40.0%.
Expect these teams to pay off their blistering pace (103.5) from Game 1 soon. For context, the Kings and Warriors are the only series with a higher mark at present (104.3), and their two games have combined to average 234.5 total points per contest.
Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns
Under 227.0 (-110)
These teams present an opposite story.
Los Angeles and Phoenix were red-hot on open shots in Game 1 despite a reduced pace (102.5). Phoenix cashed their open looks at a 55.0% clip, and the Clippers (55.6%) performed even better. That trend should reverse in this series.
Though Kevin Durant was just a small part of the Suns' season, they banged in just 42.5% of open looks in the regular season. L.A. was a bit higher (44.6%), but adding Russell Westbrook into the fold should lower our expectations for them. Westbrook has shot a dismal 40.6% on nearly four wide-open attempts per game with the Clips thus far.
L.A. -- as is the case when you have Kawhi Leonard -- also outperformed their low-quality shots. However, Leonard, specifically, shot 51.8% on tightly-contested shots in Game 1, and he only was making those at a 44.8% clip in the regular season.
Though it's also a bit blind to Durant, numberFire's model sees this game as 74.8% likely to fall short of this projected total. Sharp bettors seem to be in line with 50% of the total handle on this side despite the under receiving just 36% of total bets.
