NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 5/5/23

Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place live in-game props with ease.

Please note that betting lines and our daily projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Malcolm Brogdon Under 14.5 Points (-113)

While Malcolm Brogdon has been excellent through two games, scoring 23 and 20 points off the bench, I like the under on his points prop for Game 3.

Brogdon is a super efficient player, so he might be able to sustain his 51.6% shooting from Games 1 and 2. What he'll have a lot more trouble maintaining is his 27.6% usage rate from those two outings. That 27.6% usage rate is second on the Boston Celtics, and it's not that far from Jayson Tatum's team-leading 29.9% mark.

Brogdon's usage rate was 22.4% in the first round, and it was 22.3% in the regular season -- a distant third on the team behind Tatum (31.9%) and Jaylen Brown (30.7%). Brogdon and Brown -- the latter of whom has a 23.7% usage rate through two games against the Philadelphia 76ers -- have essentially seen their usage flip so far in this series, and that's probably not going to last.

On top of that, Philly was stingy versus point guards in the regular season, giving up second-fewest points per game to the position.

We project Brogdon for 14.2 points tonight, and the under is the side I'll be on.

Deandre Ayton to Record a Double-Double (+110)

Deandre Ayton has gone without a double-double in each of the first two games of this series, but there are reasons to back him to do it in Game 3.

In the regular season, Ayton averaged 18.0 points and 10.0 rebounds, and he's averaged a double-double in each of his five seasons in the NBA. Despite the past two contests, he's averaging a double-double in these playoffs, too, sitting at per-game clips of 15.4 points and 10.1 boards.

Ayton's points prop is at 16.5 points. He's -950 to score 10-plus points and -115 to pull down 10-plus rebounds. Ayton getting a double-double will almost surely come down to his work on the glass.

Across the last 30 games of the regular season, the Denver Nuggets were right around the league average for rebounds per night allowed to centers (15.4). In the regular season, Ayton played Denver three times and averaged 10.3 rebounds per night against them, going for double-digit boards in two of the three games.

We project Ayton for 11.0 boards and 16.0 points.