FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Wednesday 5/10/23

Since it's much simpler to predict than baseball or football, daily fantasy basketball would get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right?

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

We'll also come at you with this primer daily, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.

The Slate and Key Injuries

Today's injury report is a mirror image of Monday's.

Miami had Jimmy Butler (ankle) and Caleb Martin (back), and both played heavy minutes despite the listing. New York had Immanuel Quickley (ankle) listed as doubtful, and he didn't play. He's doubtful again.

In the nightcap between Los Angeles and Golden State, no player has a status beyond probable.

Guards

The triple-double on Monday for Stephen Curry ($10,400) could be just the beginning.

Golden State found great success inserting Gary Payton II ($4,100) into the lineup and playing him for 23 minutes. They generated 18 open threes, but they cashed just 4 of them. Expect Curry's dominant role on the ball to stay, and he'll likely improve upon 40.0% shooting most nights.

Other key guards in that game just need to find their touch, too. D'Angelo Russell ($6,400) shot just 10.0% from the field in 31 minutes, and Klay Thompson ($6,200) shot 27.2% in 41 minutes. They're elite mid-range plays.

In a do-or-die game for the Knicks, Jalen Brunson ($9,000) should play the bulk of the game without Quickley again. He amassed 32 points and 11 assists in 44 minutes. He serves to be an interesting pivot off Steph.

Miami's guard breakdown shifted again. Max Strus ($5,500) was hot from three and logged 37 minutes, and Kyle Lowry ($5,800) posted 26 minutes and close the game. With a starting role, I want to buy low on a potential hot start from Gabe Vincent ($4,800), who has averaged 31.5 minutes per game in this series.

Lonnie Walker ($4,600) has overtaken the sixth role for the Lakers, logging 27 minutes as Game 4's hero. Dennis Schroder ($4,500) logged 35 minutes in that mix, too.

The only other names to consider here would be Jordan Poole and Moses Moody ($3,800). The Dubs appear to be trending away from Poole, benching him after four missed shots to open Game 4. Moody logged 19 minutes and closed the game ahead of him.

Wings

I mentioned on Covering the Spread today that this reeks of a game the Lakers mail in. With a series lead on the road this postseason, L.A. is 0-3 with an average point differential of -18.

With that forecast, I'll be lower on LeBron James than most today. I prefer Jimmy Butler ($10,600) at the top of the pool here after Butler showed no issues with his ankle in Game 4. In 41 minutes, he posted 27 points, 10 assists, and four stocks (steals plus blocks). As I said Monday, the stocks were the concern with maximum effort on the bad wheel, but he answered the bell.

New York's wings could play an interesting role on this slate. RJ Barrett ($6,600) is at no risk of benching with Quickley out, and he's quietly topped 20 points in five of his last six games. Quentin Grimes ($4,300) is a no-brainer after logging 43 minutes in Game 4, but I don't want to write off Josh Hart ($6,000), either. He was held to 21 minutes off the bench, but it was due to foul trouble more than a role change.

All three should get heavy minutes with less Miles McBride in Game 5. On the other side, Caleb Martin ($4,700) got a much-needed salary haircut. He still played 25 key minutes despite the back issue.

Of course, Andrew Wiggins ($6,300) and Austin Reaves ($5,900) are the final pieces to consider when they're seeing 30-plus minutes on the court, too.

Bigs

We saw the impact of Golden State's lineup change in the box score. Anthony Davis was lured away from the basket and ended up with no blocks.

That hurts his upside in DFS, but there are other concerns. Davis, specifically, has posted 46.0 FanDuel points per game in those three aforementioned road games. If that's the outcome, it's usually his fault -- in addition to less time on the court in a lopsided outcome.

We've got alternatives in the other game, though. Bam Adebayo ($8,000) has rediscovered his offensive role with a 24.7% usage rate in Game 4, and he's eclipsed 44 FanDuel points in any game where he's scored at least 20. That's a certainty with that usage.

Julius Randle ($7,400) has been terrible, but we've seen him burst past 38 FanDuel points twice in 11 playoff games. He'll play as much as possible with the Knicks' season on the line. Mitchell Robinson ($5,200), with a dropping salary, also returned to a 33-minute role in Game 4 in place of the ineffective Isaiah Hartenstein. He scored just six points but can pummel a Miami team with the second-worst rebounding rate of teams left.

The other key piece here is Draymond Green ($6,700), who had an uncharacteristic five turnovers in Game 4 to doom his FanDuel score. Green still logged 37 minutes with Kevon Looney ostensibly benched at this stage.

Kevin Love ($4,400), with his part-time duty, is probably the only value piece worth trying. In addition to Hartenstein's reduction, the Lakers have nearly moved completely off Jarred Vanderbilt and Rui Hachimura. However, Vanderbilt's starting role and defensive versatility give him a path to get there, and Hachimura could be a decent play with a severe blowout angle.