NBA

Updated NBA Finals Odds: Golden State Is Already a Near Lock to Win

JJ Zachariason  —  @LateRoundQB Jun 5th, 2015
Game 1 was close, but the Warriors found a way to win. As a result, our numbers are giving them ridiculous odds to snag the NBA Championship.

At the start of the NBA Finals, our algorithm gave the Warriors a 78.76% chance of winning it.

Naturally, after a close Game 1 victory that almost looked like it was going to go Cleveland's way, that number has gone up.

Golden State Warriors win in 4: 21.17%
Golden State Warriors win in 5: 31.16%
Golden State Warriors win in 6: 17.85%
Golden State Warriors win in 7: 16.33%
Golden State Warriors win series: 86.51%
Cleveland Cavaliers win in 5: 1.52%
Cleveland Cavaliers win in 6: 5.53%
Cleveland Cavaliers win in 7: 6.44%
Cleveland Cavaliers win series: 13.49%

Because everyone reading this is probably wondering -- yes, those numbers are with Kyrie Irving. If the Cavs are without him from here on out, here's how our numbers see this series playing out.

Golden State Warriors win in 4: 23.22%
Golden State Warriors win in 5: 33.16%
Golden State Warriors win in 6: 17.35%
Golden State Warriors win in 7: 14.65%
Golden State Warriors win series: 88.38%
Cleveland Cavaliers win in 5: 1.17%
Cleveland Cavaliers win in 6: 4.92%
Cleveland Cavaliers win in 7: 5.53%
Cleveland Cavaliers win series: 11.62%

Because the Warriors have such high odds to win the championship even with Kyrie on the court, the shift isn't all that dramatic. But at nearly 90% odds for Golden State, things aren't looking good for the Cavs.