Without Stephen Curry, the Warriors Are Just Another NBA Finals Contender
I won't bury the lede here.
The Golden State Warriors are an elite NBA team, and a lot of that has to do with superstar point guard Stephen Curry.
But Curry, who slipped during the first half of the Warriors' Game 4 contest against the Houston Rockets, is slated to miss at least the next two weeks of NBA action.
Stephen Curry update: pic.twitter.com/lJRK6XOfpq
— WarriorsPR (@WarriorsPR) April 25, 2016
How does this news impact the Warriors' odds at repeating as NBA Champions?
With You
With Curry fully healthy, the Warriors -- who hold a 3-1 series lead over the Rockets -- have a 29.9% chance to win the NBA Finals, according to our algorithm.
That's the top mark in the field, but not by much.
The San Antonio Spurs own a 29.86% chance to win the Finals -- if Curry is healthy.
Only the Cleveland Cavaliers (12.48%) had a better-than-seven-percent chance to win it all with the league's best player by nERD, Curry, at peak health.
Without You
Without Curry for the entire playoffs, things don't look nearly as nice.
The Warriors' odds without Curry to reach the conference finals drop from 39.09% to just 14.44%, according to our chief analyst Keith Goldner.
And their NBA Finals odds put them -- at best -- on par with just about every other contender in the league not named the Spurs.
Here's the odds of the top-six squads to win it all in both scenarios.
| Championship Odds | With Curry | Without Curry | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 29.86% | 38.40% | 8.54% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 12.48% | 14.38% | 1.90% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 6.79% | 10.67% | 3.88% |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 6.47% | 10.56% | 4.09% |
| Golden State Warriors | 29.90% | 7.70% | -22.20% |
| Toronto Raptors | 5.45% | 6.54% | 1.09% |
The Warriors are clear losers in this scenario -- obviously -- but the Spurs' chances to win another NBA championship seems pretty insurmountable if Curry can't return at all.
For the sake of the NBA playoffs, get well soon, Steph.
