NCAA Tournament: Which Teams Could Be Seeded Too Low on Selection Sunday?

Gonzaga Bulldogs

nF Rating: 12

nF Projected Seed: 8

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: 5

Gonzaga might be this year’s best example of the folly of the RPI, which has the Bulldogs in an almost comical tie for 39th.

The model surely likes their 23-4 record, but their standing is undercut because the RPI values who you played more than how you played. Its formula gives a team’s record 25% of the weight, the record of its foes 50% of the weight and the opponent of the team’s opponents the remaining 25%.

This means three-quarters of a team’s ratings are completely out of its hands. That's to the detriment of a team in a comparatively weak conference like the Zags are; Gonzaga is 125th in strength of schedule at KenPom and the RPI pays no mind to the fact that the Bulldogs have been again been absolutely dominant this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.3 points per game (the fourth-best mark in the nation).

While our model might be overstating how much the committee will knock the Bulldogs because of this (it is hard to imagine Gonzaga truly getting an 8 seed), the Bracket Matrix still has them on the 5 line.

Our ratings suggest they should get a 3 seed, and their ranking of eighth overall at KenPom implies they are good enough to be a 2 seed