NCAA Tournament: Which Teams Could Be Seeded Too High on Selection Sunday?

Providence Friars

nF Rating: 69

nF Projected Seed: 8

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: 11

If you’re feeling a little bit of deja vu, don’t be alarmed. This isn’t the first time the advanced stats and public perception have painted a different picture of the Friars.

In 2016, Providence was ranked 10th in the AP Poll in late January after a 17-3 start but was only 47th in our ratings and 50th at KenPom. The divide was caused by the Friars’ then 5-1 record in games decided by five points or fewer, which the models implied was unsustainable.

Providence proceeded to lose 8 of its final 15 games, with five of these losses coming by double digits, including a 19-point throttling at the hands of North Carolina in the NCAA tournament. To their credit, the Friars continued to perform well in close games (winning four of their remaining five games that were decided by five points or less), but they were beaten badly often enough that it didn't make a difference.

Also consider the 2016-17 Maryland Terrapins, who began the season 20-2 but were just 40th at KenPom. They started the campaign 5-1 in five-point games -- and 9-1 in two-score games -- but had only three more games decided by two buckets or fewer, losing two of them. Overall, the Terrapins ended up losing 7 of their final 14 games and were bounced in the first round of both the Big Ten tourney and the Big Dance.

These cautionary tales are relevant because Providence is again overachieving in close games. After finishing 5-5 in five-point games last season, the Friars are 7-1 in these contests this season.

In terms of average scoring margin, they are just +2.5, which is tied for 122nd nationally. To their credit, they have played the 30th-most difficult schedule, per KenPom, but this still looks like a team that could be headed for another late-season slump.